INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 20, 2013…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon all!

Sorry again about the delay.  Going to be like that most likely until I get my car back, and don’t have to run my fiancee to work, one boy to school, then the other, then pick the first one up, and then the oldest 1 -2 hours after.

INVEST 95L is barley discernible on satellite loop imagery this afternoon.  Yesterday afternoon, the LLC became decoupled from the convection, and this surface feature is moving toward the NW.

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I expect the motion of the center to continue NW, for the next 12-18 hours, before shallow layer steering currents are forecast to shift to a S-N flow.  The low level feature may move inland if it moves quick enough.  However, although there is not much left, the last model guidance run of 12Z shows a northward turn, just skirting the coast, then a turn to the NNE to NE.

12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyinvest95L

Based on the system being decoupled and under shear, I am not expecting any reorganization.  However, even though I do believe this is pretty much a dead horse, the ONLY way this would have a chance, and a very slim one at that, is if the LLC remained notable enough, as based on the motion it may take, upper level winds over the GOMEX are forecast to become pretty conducive within the next 30-36 hours, and become slowly more favorable thereafter.  Again, this is extremely slim of anything redeveloping, however, I again mention Humberto from years ago.  It looked exactly the same way, then BAM!

I’ll be watching this for anything out of the ordinary.

Elsewhere, I am monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms near Latitude 5N…Longitude 38W.  Albeit, climatologically this area is not where we tend to watch being this late in the season, an upper level anticyclone has been developing over the area over the past few hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 24 hours and slowly progressing west.

I will be monitoring this area over the weekend for any significant changes.

Although this season has been extremely strange, and activity so far has been below what was expected given early season signals,  DO NOT count this season down and out as of yet.  The GFS wind shear forecast indicates on the 12Z run, that upper level winds should become very favorable over the GOMEX, and portions of the Caribbean within the next 4-5 days, with conditions over the GOMEX reaming conducive for about 8-10 days.  One other factor that has seemed to be consistent now over the past 3 days, is the NAO forecast, which is forecast to dive to a strong negative.  Whether this will have an effect on future developments or not will remain to be seen.  However, this would allow for the trade wind belt to slow, allowing for the piling up of warm air in the tropics, and a reduction in shear.

WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

My next update will be Monday, unless something unusual occurs.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 20, 2013…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope you get your car back soon and it’s not too expensive a repair. Yup, still a long way to go in the season. We here in the Northeast remember Sandy of last year, and that didn’t occur until the end of October. And I have my batteries ready to go if I need them, except mine are Duracells!–not Evereadys. 🙂

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! Have been getting decent rain here in SE TX. Have had about 4″ with another 2-5 more….so they say. 🙂

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It sounds like you do more before 9am than most people do all day…where have I heard that before?? I’m with Elliot…something’s got to give. Have a great weekend Storm and everyone!!

  4. Elliot Lisak says:

    Thank you Master Chief,

    STRANGE is to say the least! However, I still hold my position …. things are going to get busy before the season ends. In the meantime let us all remember that it only takes one to make it a
    memorable season. By the way I have 12 cases of beer, 50 bottles of Hollywood water and 52 cans of tunafish and Eveready batteries (well its a good thing they have a shelf life of 10 years).
    I am ready for the 2014 season.

    Thank you chief this is why we constantly train to be ready! Have a great weekend everyone.

  5. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks Mr storm sorry about your car will be praying for you also includes think we are getting september weather but it seems like august in think. The weather pattern is in a lag Mr storm i think something fixing to pop what do you think? Greg /mobile Alabama.

    • Thanks Greg! Yes, I’ve thought that myself, that the season seems to be lagging by a month. Well, if we get anything to go into the W. Caribbean, with favorable upper level winds..all hell will break loose…there is tons of heat energy in the water down there.

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