Good afternoon all!
Sorry again about the delay. Going to be like that most likely until I get my car back, and don’t have to run my fiancee to work, one boy to school, then the other, then pick the first one up, and then the oldest 1 -2 hours after.
INVEST 95L is barley discernible on satellite loop imagery this afternoon. Yesterday afternoon, the LLC became decoupled from the convection, and this surface feature is moving toward the NW.
I expect the motion of the center to continue NW, for the next 12-18 hours, before shallow layer steering currents are forecast to shift to a S-N flow. The low level feature may move inland if it moves quick enough. However, although there is not much left, the last model guidance run of 12Z shows a northward turn, just skirting the coast, then a turn to the NNE to NE.
Based on the system being decoupled and under shear, I am not expecting any reorganization. However, even though I do believe this is pretty much a dead horse, the ONLY way this would have a chance, and a very slim one at that, is if the LLC remained notable enough, as based on the motion it may take, upper level winds over the GOMEX are forecast to become pretty conducive within the next 30-36 hours, and become slowly more favorable thereafter. Again, this is extremely slim of anything redeveloping, however, I again mention Humberto from years ago. It looked exactly the same way, then BAM!
I’ll be watching this for anything out of the ordinary.
Elsewhere, I am monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms near Latitude 5N…Longitude 38W. Albeit, climatologically this area is not where we tend to watch being this late in the season, an upper level anticyclone has been developing over the area over the past few hours.
The current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 24 hours and slowly progressing west.
I will be monitoring this area over the weekend for any significant changes.
Although this season has been extremely strange, and activity so far has been below what was expected given early season signals, DO NOT count this season down and out as of yet. The GFS wind shear forecast indicates on the 12Z run, that upper level winds should become very favorable over the GOMEX, and portions of the Caribbean within the next 4-5 days, with conditions over the GOMEX reaming conducive for about 8-10 days. One other factor that has seemed to be consistent now over the past 3 days, is the NAO forecast, which is forecast to dive to a strong negative. Whether this will have an effect on future developments or not will remain to be seen. However, this would allow for the trade wind belt to slow, allowing for the piling up of warm air in the tropics, and a reduction in shear.
My next update will be Monday, unless something unusual occurs.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)