Good day everyone!
I must say, 95L has been a very strange critter. Not that it is really too difficult for forecasting, but a bit confusing given the model differences.
Invest 95L appears in satellite loop imagery to have taken a move toward the WSW, and is located in the southern BOC. Current steering layers map indicates a WNW to NW flow at this time. Upon close analysis of satellite loop imagery from the visible and RGB channels, INVEST 95L has become decoupled, with the LLC located approximately near 21.0N…94.8W. I expect the naked LLC to continue on this motion for the next 24-48 hours. Based on this development, the track should be close to the dynamic model guidance, which is pretty much rendered useless now given the LLC is not really too well defined.
Based on this, the NHC may in fact drop this system, unless convection can start firing up near the center.
Upper level winds based on the GFS shear forecast, become conducive for development in about 36 hours in the extreme W. GOMEX near NERN Mexico, however there may not be anything left to take advantage of these conditions. I will continue to monitor this however for any significant changes (e.g Humberto back a few years ago in the GOMEX)
Elsewhere, I really don’t see anything catching my eye at the moment, unless we get something that tries to develop along the stalled front. I should have time to do a better analysis as far as forecasting future development sometime tonight, in order to give me a better idea for tomorrows forecast.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)