TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L SHORT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 19, 2013…ISSUED 4:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

I must say, 95L has been a very strange critter. Not that it is really too difficult for forecasting, but a bit confusing given the model differences.

Invest 95L appears in satellite loop imagery to have taken a move toward the WSW, and is located in the southern BOC.  Current steering layers map indicates a WNW to NW flow at this time.  Upon close analysis of satellite loop imagery from the visible and RGB channels, INVEST 95L has become decoupled, with the LLC located approximately near 21.0N…94.8W.  I expect the naked LLC to continue on this motion for the next 24-48 hours.  Based on this development, the track should be close to the dynamic model guidance, which is pretty much rendered useless now given the LLC is not really too well defined.

95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
18zatcfearlyinvest1best95L

Based on this, the NHC may in fact drop this system, unless convection can start firing up near the center.

Upper level winds based on the GFS shear forecast, become conducive for development in about 36 hours in the extreme W. GOMEX near NERN Mexico, however there may not be anything left to take advantage of these conditions.  I will continue to monitor this however for any significant changes (e.g  Humberto back a few years ago in the GOMEX)

Elsewhere, I really don’t see anything catching my eye at the moment, unless we get something that tries to develop along the stalled front.  I should have time to do a better analysis as far as forecasting future development sometime tonight, in order to give me a better idea for tomorrows forecast.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L SHORT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 19, 2013…ISSUED 4:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Yes, I remember Humberto (in 07 I believe). Went to bed that night,wind was calm and no rain. Woke up at about 1am to a cat 1 hurricane…It was a pretty cool storm.

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Strange Mr storm looks like the light switch has missed function no elino no lanina. This hurricane season will definitely go down in the. Record books.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…the models are all over the place. Like you said…may not matter.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Well maybe it was much a due about nothing. This is good for the people of Mexico.

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