TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening everyone!

FINALLY!…never thought I’d be able to post tonight.

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L has moved out into the SW BOC.  In fact, as of the 00Z ATCF FTP information, the center has relocated a little further south by about 20 nm. The system is moving slowly to the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48 hours.  

Current satellite loop imagery indicates the system has become somewhat better organized, however convection has diminished.

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds are marginal at this time for further development, however indications are the trend has shown wind shear slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS

The GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should become more conducive in about 48-52 hours, over the western portion of the GOMEX, within the current forecast track from the 00Z dynamic model guidance.  Guidance has shifted southward again, and indications are that a cyclonic loop will take place.  Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps valid for 00Z tonight,  I agree at the moment with the dynamic guidance TVCA / TVCN track.  This is however, preliminary, as there is quite the divergence in global model guidance.  Most of the global models seem to indicate the approaching frontal system becomes involved, and strings out the energy of this system, sending a portion to the NE, and the western portion into Mexico near the TX border, while the GFS shows more of the energy over Brownsville TX, and CMC just a little more north of there, as a closed low.  The FIM model has a totally different scenario, with an anticyclonic loop, and what is left of this, into Louisiana.  The models are most likely all over, given this system is just now developing, the convection and heat to the west, and the handling of the approaching frontal system.  So, to avoid any erroneous track and strength forecasts at the moment, this will be better off handled on a real time basis scenario.  One thing I can say, is the steering forecast maps are not indicating a turn toward the right, but more of a scenario toward the Brownsville / Texas; Mexico border.

Based on the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, wind shear is expected to drop to favorable levels in about 48-52 hours, with an upper level anticyclone becoming evident.

GFS SHEAR FORECAST


00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE

00zatcfearlyinvest195L

FIM MODEL LOOP

Based on these analyses, INVEST 95L may not strengthen as steady as originally thought, nor become a strong system at all, given the changes to the upper pattern, and approaching front.  I’ll have a much better idea on things, once we see how this begins to develop.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Morning Storm, like you said , the center area of 95L looks further South in the BOC, and, seems to be progressing pretty well to the West. Maybe it will reach the coast of Mex. before it gets a chance to meander in the BOC ?.

  2. Thanks Storm
    Been waiting for someone with some real knowledge to come in here and tell us what is going on! I need to keep a good eye on this for the next few hours! Depending on what it looks like tomorrow at 1000 hrs CDT, I will either be boarding up for a storm or packing up for a few days with family. I would hate to get there and then have to turn around and come back with a hammer!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Going with TVCA/TVCN guidance…sure looks like models are pushing this thing right. Don’t know…many things to play out. Again…that’s why we have the Jedi Master. Wow…don’t know whether to warn gang in Texas or not. Waiting on you buddy!!

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