Good evening everyone!
FINALLY!…never thought I’d be able to post tonight.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L has moved out into the SW BOC. In fact, as of the 00Z ATCF FTP information, the center has relocated a little further south by about 20 nm. The system is moving slowly to the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48 hours.
Current satellite loop imagery indicates the system has become somewhat better organized, however convection has diminished.
Upper level winds are marginal at this time for further development, however indications are the trend has shown wind shear slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS
The GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should become more conducive in about 48-52 hours, over the western portion of the GOMEX, within the current forecast track from the 00Z dynamic model guidance. Guidance has shifted southward again, and indications are that a cyclonic loop will take place. Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps valid for 00Z tonight, I agree at the moment with the dynamic guidance TVCA / TVCN track. This is however, preliminary, as there is quite the divergence in global model guidance. Most of the global models seem to indicate the approaching frontal system becomes involved, and strings out the energy of this system, sending a portion to the NE, and the western portion into Mexico near the TX border, while the GFS shows more of the energy over Brownsville TX, and CMC just a little more north of there, as a closed low. The FIM model has a totally different scenario, with an anticyclonic loop, and what is left of this, into Louisiana. The models are most likely all over, given this system is just now developing, the convection and heat to the west, and the handling of the approaching frontal system. So, to avoid any erroneous track and strength forecasts at the moment, this will be better off handled on a real time basis scenario. One thing I can say, is the steering forecast maps are not indicating a turn toward the right, but more of a scenario toward the Brownsville / Texas; Mexico border.
Based on the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, wind shear is expected to drop to favorable levels in about 48-52 hours, with an upper level anticyclone becoming evident.
Based on these analyses, INVEST 95L may not strengthen as steady as originally thought, nor become a strong system at all, given the changes to the upper pattern, and approaching front. I’ll have a much better idea on things, once we see how this begins to develop.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)