TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 17, 2013…ISSUED 6:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

SPECIAL UPDATE:  INVEST 95L:

The NHC in Miami has increased the probability of INVEST 95L becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours to HIGH (60%), and to HIGH (70%) of becoming a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 days!  Residents in the areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system closely!

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 8:00 P.M.

Good evening everyone!  Apologies for the late update…had car problems, and spent most of the morning dealing with that issue.

DONATIONS NEEDED…THANK YOU FOR ANY HELP!
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INVEST 95L was declared yesterday, and is located just onshore of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Belize.  Albeit the middle of the system is a tad further west, the last official position as of 2:00 p.m. EDT was Latitude 18.1N…Longitude 88.3W.  The disturbance is moving slowly to the WNW at around 5 mph, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24-36 hours.  Based on this, the center should emerge over the BOC/GOMEX tomorrow sometime.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) chance of this becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a HIGH (60%) chance during the next 5 days.  NCEP Multi Model and NCEP Ensemble models indicate a very high chance of this developing right through 120 hours.

INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

WESTERN ATLANTIC (WATL) SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NCEP ENSEMBLE MODELS 

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates a fairly decent system for being over land, not unlike the last 2 systems we have seen develop.  One factor that could be somewhat inhibiting, is drier air over much of the GOMEX.  Given the current outflow structure to the north and east of this disturbance, INVEST 95L may be able to overcome this dry air as it moves WNW.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 30 mph, and I expect no change until this enters the BOC.  Buoy readings from east of Belize indicate falling pressures, and the barometric pressure over Belize around 4:00 p.m. EDT was at 29.73 inches and falling.

Currently, upper level winds are marginal for further development, however the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds will become more conducive, and favorable for further development of this disturbance in about 24 to 36 hours, with an upper level anticyclone developing over the area thereafter, moving in tandem with the system.  The wind shear tendency over the past 24 hours does indicate shear has diminished over the area.  Based on this, and the TCHP in the possible track, save any problems with dry air, I expect to see pretty much the same strengthening characteristics as we saw with Ingrid, if not a little more steadier organization, as this may have more time over warm water than the last 3 systems that developed in the BOC.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

TCHP

Based on analysis of the current steering layer mean, and a combination of dynamic model guidance and forecast steering layers maps, I expect a WNW motion to continue for the next 48-66 hours, before a turn more toward the NW or NNW could occur.  This is based on a weakness that develops in the ridge over TX at the moment by the 72 hour time period, valid at 00Z this evening.  Albeit not shown in dynamic model guidance, this possible turn would be occurring around the point where the current dynamic model tracks stop.  In fact, analysis of both the 12Z and 18Z dynamic guidance shows a shift northward in the guidance of about 120-150 nautical miles from 12Z to 18Z.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
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18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
18zatcfearlyinvest1best95L

Based on all of the information thus far, I am calling for further strengthening, slow at first entrance into the BOC, and steadier once the upper air pattern becomes more conducive.  All of this could change, depending on whether a center reformation takes place as we saw with Ingrid.  Actual track is going to rely on 2 major items right now…whether or not the steering forecast remains the same, and the forward speed of the system.  The faster, then more toward Mexico.  Slower, and the threat for the U.S. Gulf Coast increases.  Right now I’m in the ballpark of a strong tropical storm, to possibly category one hurricane.

Given the uncertainty of this developing system, Residents from the TX/MEX border to the Central Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system closely.

For USCG AIR STATION CLEARWATER, FL.: Recommend you pass this information to CCGD SEVEN MIAMI, FL.

Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the NE Bahamas area for any signs of subtropical development.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 17, 2013…ISSUED 6:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I think you will have a better handle on this once it reaches the BOC and a definite center forms. I think you mentioned this your self towards the end of your discussion, above.^

  2. Hey1 Get one out of the way and another one springs up! We’re still trying to get away from here before Fri. Unless something drastic happens, we might make it! Had to put things off for 2 days but that’s not bad! Sorted out the plywood pieces today and it looks like I’m going to have to enlist my grandson to help put this stuff up on the windows. It’s one thing after another!! Cheers!

  3. Monty says:

    I only ask because TV15 puts 95L dangerously close to IAH. It looks like TVCC/TVCA/TVCN are a “kind of” mixed bag ATTM. Good point on the 0000Z run on the CMC…does this throw a monkey wrench into future guidance? GFS/Ensemble members kind of whacked out too…whew…glad we have you!!

  4. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Evening Chief,

    Thank you for your professional insight. It appears to my uneducated eye (meteorologically) that the 18Z runs bring the TVCC/TVCA a come-a-back that the runs seem to focus towards Sth Florida, which has been noted by the TW (the other guys(who try to practice meteorology )).

    Thoughts Master Chief

  5. TexasHurricane says:

    I think this is the most “in” TX has been with any storms during this season. Maybe we can get a good rain maker out of it. I’m not holding my breath though….but who knows.

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm How reliable is TV15? It definitely looks like someone in Mexico pissed Mother Nature off!!

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