TROPICAL STORM INGRID / REMNANT HUMBERTO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Hurricane Ingrid was downgraded to Tropical Storm Ingrid as she made landfall near LA PESCA MEXICO, north of Tampico.  Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph with higher gusts.

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

The system is expected to turn more toward the WSW during the next couple of days, and should dissipate over Mexico.

NHC TRACKING MAP (LINKED)

Now that Ingrid has made landfall, this will be my final update on this system, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs.

The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) chance for Humberto to regenerate into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a HIGH (90%)chance during the next 5 days.


NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Albeit I expect this to occur, if the LLC can relocate under the convection, I am not too concerned as dynamic model guidance is tightly clustered on this storm re-curving NE over the open Atlantic.

HUMBERTO FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyinvest2best.HUMBERTO

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean Sea over the next 5-7 days for any signs of development.

Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, upper level winds are not conducive for development at the moment.  However, albeit the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates wind shear values to remain around 14-16 m/s -1 (30-35 mph) during the next 54-60 hours, upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive as this broad area should enter the GOMEX in a few days, possibly a little further north in the southern BOC than what we have seen with the past few systems.  I believe we could see some development around the NW Caribbean/ south central GOMEX once a few features are out of the picture (eg. Manuel in the EPAC, Ingrid over Mexico).  Another item of note, is we have an upper level low currently spinning over the Florida Keys.  Based on upper level wind analysis, and the wind shear current and forecast maps, I do not believe at the moment, real time and forecast data have initialized this feature all that well, as a more pronounced closed circulation is noted in satellite water vapor loop imagery, as opposed to just a straight “TUTT” feature. This may be a factor in the current wind shear forecast.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP
wg8shr 9.16

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

GOMEX WATER VAPOR LOOP

As this ULL continues to move away from the NW Caribbean, and dissipates, along with the other two features mentioned, we could very well see a large improvement in the upper level pattern.  I will be monitoring this area closely over the next few days.

WATL WATER VAPOR IMAGE
wv-lwatl

Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, again, this is only one run, and I will be analyzing these over the next few days for any significant pattern changes, as if anything were to develop, the current forecast steering pattern may suggest the luck for the Gulf Coast area may have possibly run out.  Again, there is no need for alarm, as I do not know what type of consistency we may see n the upcoming days as far as a steering pattern.

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring just slightly east, to over the northern Bahamas area the next few days, as the current 500 mb anomaly mean departure suggests a lowering of pressures over that area to extreme south Florida in about 5-7 days.

NOAA ESRL 500 MB ANOMALY MEAN DEPARTURE

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL STORM INGRID / REMNANT HUMBERTO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Looks like Invest 95L declared, more trouble maybe for Mexico?

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks Mr storm and weird season indeed.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! This possible gulf coast threat….More west you think or east if it develops? I’m guessing east.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…never a dull moment it seems. One more day to go up here as far as a Flash Flood threat. So far…19,000 homes damaged…well over 1000 homes lost…6 dead…1100 unaccounted for…supposedly the biggest air rescue since Hurricane Katrina…so they say.

    • dellamom says:

      Monty, no one who has ever been through that sort of thing would ever want anyone else to experience it. Those of us down here in Louisiana and the people who were hit by Sandy can all relate to you. Unfortunately, Louisianians are no longer the lone voices in the flooding catastrophe wilderness. Just be prepared … in a year people will be saying: “But I thought y’all were back to normal by now”; “It should not be taking you this long to get things done:; and the best, “You people are just milking the federal cow here and should be ashamed of yourselves.” We have heard it all and worse. There are areas down here that will never, ever be fully recovered. Prayers with you and yours.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, this weird season continues!

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