Good day everyone!
Hurricane Ingrid was downgraded to Tropical Storm Ingrid as she made landfall near LA PESCA MEXICO, north of Tampico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph with higher gusts.
The system is expected to turn more toward the WSW during the next couple of days, and should dissipate over Mexico.
Now that Ingrid has made landfall, this will be my final update on this system, unless anything out of the ordinary occurs.
The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) chance for Humberto to regenerate into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a HIGH (90%)chance during the next 5 days.
Albeit I expect this to occur, if the LLC can relocate under the convection, I am not too concerned as dynamic model guidance is tightly clustered on this storm re-curving NE over the open Atlantic.
Elsewhere, I will be monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean Sea over the next 5-7 days for any signs of development.
Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, upper level winds are not conducive for development at the moment. However, albeit the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates wind shear values to remain around 14-16 m/s -1 (30-35 mph) during the next 54-60 hours, upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive as this broad area should enter the GOMEX in a few days, possibly a little further north in the southern BOC than what we have seen with the past few systems. I believe we could see some development around the NW Caribbean/ south central GOMEX once a few features are out of the picture (eg. Manuel in the EPAC, Ingrid over Mexico). Another item of note, is we have an upper level low currently spinning over the Florida Keys. Based on upper level wind analysis, and the wind shear current and forecast maps, I do not believe at the moment, real time and forecast data have initialized this feature all that well, as a more pronounced closed circulation is noted in satellite water vapor loop imagery, as opposed to just a straight “TUTT” feature. This may be a factor in the current wind shear forecast.
As this ULL continues to move away from the NW Caribbean, and dissipates, along with the other two features mentioned, we could very well see a large improvement in the upper level pattern. I will be monitoring this area closely over the next few days.
Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, again, this is only one run, and I will be analyzing these over the next few days for any significant pattern changes, as if anything were to develop, the current forecast steering pattern may suggest the luck for the Gulf Coast area may have possibly run out. Again, there is no need for alarm, as I do not know what type of consistency we may see n the upcoming days as far as a steering pattern.
Elsewhere, I will be monitoring just slightly east, to over the northern Bahamas area the next few days, as the current 500 mb anomaly mean departure suggests a lowering of pressures over that area to extreme south Florida in about 5-7 days.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)