TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 14, 2013…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS ARE NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH

Based on satellite loop imagery, Ingrid continues to become better organized, despite westerly wind shear of around 20 knots, courtesy of outflow from Manuel in the EPAC.  However this may be changing as Ingrid appears to most likely become the dominant feature.  Satellite imagery indicates Ingrid displaying a fairly impressive CDO, and Hot Towers noted going up around various portions of the storm.  Generally when we see hot towers going up, it is an indication of an intensifying system. 

TROPICAL STORM INGRID SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

As of the 11:00 A.M. EDT advisory, Ingrid’s sustained winds were at 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of Category ONE hurricane status.  The following information on Ingrid from this advisory is contained in the Global Tracks 7 Tracking Map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 INGRID TRACKING MAP AND ERROR FORECAST
INGRID

INGRID.ERROR

Ingrid had been moving toward a NNE motion earlier, however it appears she may be almost stationary.  It would appear the NE shift of the center I had called for may have come to fruition.

Ingrid still remains in weak steering currents, and I expect a slow N movement to almost stationary motion to continue for most of today.  While I have the utmost respect for the NHC and respect for the dynamic model guidance, the current steering layers map, and forecast steering layers maps valid fro 12Z this morning, appear to have not initialized the ridge/trof pattern over the U.S. correctly.  Albeit the current steering layer does indicate a weakening in the ridge it shows north of Ingrid, it is apparent both this and forecast steering maps do not have the proper strength of the trofs noted, based on water vapor images and water vapor loop imagery, to which the trof situation appears stronger, with the trof NE of Ingrid extending further SW toward the GOMEX, which disagrees with the current steering.  I have drawn in  the flow in various shades, to which each point out the weakness eroding a portion of the ridge.  The southern extent trof to the NE is drawn in yellow.  The blue line indicates where the forecast steering maps have initialized it.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP

WATER VAPOR DRAWING AND LOOP IMAGERY
wv-l.INGIRD

WATER VAPOR LOOP

Based on this analysis, albeit dynamic guidance is pretty well clustered, I prefer the “look” of the eventual track, however I am to the northern portion of the guidance package.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyINGRIDbest

Based on the fact Ingrid has strengthened in the face of some westerly shear, I continue to believe further strengthening will occur.  The current wind shear forecast agrees with the NHC forecast discussion, however, if forecast track should change somewhat and Ingrid does not make landfall within the specified time frame, I believe she could attain Category TWO status prior to landfall, as the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds becoming more conducive in about 48-50 hours from now.

Residents within the HURRICANE WATCH area of Mexico should complete preparations as quickly as possible, as high winds and flooding rains will cause flash flooding and mudslides.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

I will continue to monitor this storm closely in the event anything significant changes as far as a possible U.S. threat, albeit still slim at the moment.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 14, 2013…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Thanks Senior Chief,
    Looks like we’ll have to wait a little longer before we have to “board up” and head for Central TX. We’re planning to go there anyway for Wife’s, Daughter’s and Grandson’s birthdays. May have to delay it a day or two in order to see where Ms. Ingrid plans to join us! If she stays to the South we’ll get some nice needed rain! Two or three hundred miles further North and we’ll have some testy winds to cope with! Some local mets think it will be a little more intense but nothing the Coastal Bend will have to worry about! At age 82 I’m getting too old to deal with this. Thought I would move to the mountains (AZ, NM, or CO) but after the Summer rains there – I don’t think so !!

    • Monty says:

      You don’t want to be in Colorado right now PortABeachBum…we’re a mess…and it’s getting worse.

      • Visited the Univ. in Boulder once and thought “What a wonderful place! I just might want to be here some other time!” Went to a meeting in Denver once and a group drove up into the mtns. in early Dec. The snows started and we hurried back to the Brown Hotel! Went to Crested Butte for Spring Break and almost got snowed in (Grandkids loved it!) Another Summer trip with for the Grandkids in Keystone and my hikes in the woods were great!. – – – Just goes to show – Make do with what you got – when you got it!

        • Monty says:

          I hear ya Chief…we are just really messed up right now. Colorado offers the best of the worst when it comes to weather. I remember back in 1993…September to be somewhat exact…I was listening to a Bronco’s game on Sunday…it was 96 degrees. The next morning…we had 6 inches of snow on the ground…insane my friend.

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm i am sorry you have to work. On Saturday. Mr storm do you think the rest the season will be interesting and do you think the steering pattern will include the gulf?

    • Greg, we could get a run near the last week of this month, and through Oct. One of my colleagues posted about possible development in the GOMEX again, from an area we are watching int he NW Caribbean. Could possible see something near the Bahamas in about 5-7 days. Based on what I saw in forecast steering this morning, of course it’s only one run,if something does pop in the GOMEX, there could be a chance the Gulf Coast luck just ran out. Again, this is speculatory right now.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks for working on Saturday Storm. Hey Monty, I have a cousin who lives in Aurora CO., she sent me pictures of her area, it looks pretty bad. She showed me a park that she normally goes running in, and it’s totally covered with water, you can see trees sticking out of it. Her home is OK so far.

    • originallt says:

      The park is called, –Utah Park, don’t know if you’ve heard of it?

      • Monty says:

        Yeah LT…out in Aurora. The interchange between the 225 and the 70 was completely submerged in Aurora. They are currently under a flash flood warning with the worst yet to come tonight into Sunday. I live over by lower Bear Creek…drove by there earlier…she’s raging!! Cactus Jack’s…one of our top Bars (I’m in the Beer Business) is under 8 feet of water. If Evergreen dam breaks…which many think it will…the entire downtown is flooded toast. It isn’t pretty here…kind of gives me a new perspective on what the poor people in New Orleans and other communities go through during a Hurricane. They are calling this the 1000 year flood…which doesn’t mean it happens once every 1000 years…it means there is a 1 in 1000 chance it will happen this year. LT/Storm please correct me if I’m wrong on this. Take care…looks like another warning is being issued…yuck!!

      • Monty says:

        Portions of Aurora are completely flooded out…especially around Parker Rd.

      • Monty says:

        6 inches of new precip reported in parts of Aurora.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We can all count on you Sir!! Curious…is that a new system above Humberto or part of the re-generation? New Flash Flood Warnings issued for our foothills. Another upper level disturbance and associated cold front on the way. UGGGH!!

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