Good day everyone!
…INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…
Based on satellite loop imagery, Ingrid continues to become better organized, despite westerly wind shear of around 20 knots, courtesy of outflow from Manuel in the EPAC. However this may be changing as Ingrid appears to most likely become the dominant feature. Satellite imagery indicates Ingrid displaying a fairly impressive CDO, and Hot Towers noted going up around various portions of the storm. Generally when we see hot towers going up, it is an indication of an intensifying system.
As of the 11:00 A.M. EDT advisory, Ingrid’s sustained winds were at 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of Category ONE hurricane status. The following information on Ingrid from this advisory is contained in the Global Tracks 7 Tracking Map:
Ingrid had been moving toward a NNE motion earlier, however it appears she may be almost stationary. It would appear the NE shift of the center I had called for may have come to fruition.
Ingrid still remains in weak steering currents, and I expect a slow N movement to almost stationary motion to continue for most of today. While I have the utmost respect for the NHC and respect for the dynamic model guidance, the current steering layers map, and forecast steering layers maps valid fro 12Z this morning, appear to have not initialized the ridge/trof pattern over the U.S. correctly. Albeit the current steering layer does indicate a weakening in the ridge it shows north of Ingrid, it is apparent both this and forecast steering maps do not have the proper strength of the trofs noted, based on water vapor images and water vapor loop imagery, to which the trof situation appears stronger, with the trof NE of Ingrid extending further SW toward the GOMEX, which disagrees with the current steering. I have drawn in the flow in various shades, to which each point out the weakness eroding a portion of the ridge. The southern extent trof to the NE is drawn in yellow. The blue line indicates where the forecast steering maps have initialized it.
Based on this analysis, albeit dynamic guidance is pretty well clustered, I prefer the “look” of the eventual track, however I am to the northern portion of the guidance package.
Based on the fact Ingrid has strengthened in the face of some westerly shear, I continue to believe further strengthening will occur. The current wind shear forecast agrees with the NHC forecast discussion, however, if forecast track should change somewhat and Ingrid does not make landfall within the specified time frame, I believe she could attain Category TWO status prior to landfall, as the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds becoming more conducive in about 48-50 hours from now.
Residents within the HURRICANE WATCH area of Mexico should complete preparations as quickly as possible, as high winds and flooding rains will cause flash flooding and mudslides.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
I will continue to monitor this storm closely in the event anything significant changes as far as a possible U.S. threat, albeit still slim at the moment.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)