TROPICAL STORM INGRID…SPECIAL UPDATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 13, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening all!

It was not my intention to update this late, however spent some quality time with my youngest all day.

A special 8:00 P.M. Intermediate advisory was issued by the NHC, with a complete forecast discussion….forecast discussions normally come out only on the regular advisory schedule.

NHC WEBSITE

It was reported by the NHC that the Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Ingrid is much stronger than previously thought. The wind field has also expanded.  At 5:00 p.m., maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, and have now increased to 60 mph.  Based on this quick strengthening, a HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for portions of the Mexican coast.  THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT… A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

The following information was available from the advisory, and is posted in the GLOBAL TRACKS map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 TROPICAL STORM INGRID
INGRID

Current satellite loop imagery indicates a fairly well defined CDO feature, and banding north of the center.  Albeit the latest wind shear map indicates some shear of about 15 knots from the west, both satellite imagery and upper level winds analysis indicates an excellent outflow channel developing.

INGRID SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

WATL SATELLITE LOOP

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP

Analysis of wind shear tendency indicates shear has decreased somewhat, and the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become more conducive for development in the next 12 hours or so.  Based on the storm being pretty much stationary, I believe Ingrid could attain Hurricane status a little sooner than forecast.  I am basing this off the fact, that she just went from 40 mph to 60 mph in 3 hours, with less than optimal wind shear conditions, with the outflow from the Pacific storm inhibiting her somewhat.  This, and the way the coast is shaped in the BOC, allows for what we call forced convergence in which frictional effects aid in piling air toward the center of circulation.

Based on further analysis of satellite loop imagery, mainly IR2 Shortwave, and DVORAK channels, I believe we could very well see a center reformation taking place a little further north and east of where the center was reported by the aircraft.  Placing the loops in motion, the banding and apparent circulation just don’t add up to the center near 19.2N.  If you follow the banding features toward the center to where they spiral in and appear to “meet”, this is a close approximation to where the COC may be located.

At the moment however, I agree with the current forecast track from the NHC, which is inline with the Dynamic Model guidance for the 00Z run, but I prefer the north side of the package, as analysis of the current steering layers map shows the western periphery of the ridge over TX, has weakened during the past 3-4 hours, which should allow for a slightly more northward component to the storm.  The forecast steering layers maps pretty much show a overall track similar to the guidance, however the GFS brings this ashore right now in the forecast steering, north of Tampico MX.  Also bear in mind, as a storm becomes stronger, the steering layer changes to higher up in the atmosphere.

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
00zatcfearlyinvest1bestINGRID

CURRENT STEERING LAYER FOR INGRID (note the west side of the ridge that is over Texas)

Putting all of this together, I believe Ingrid could be stronger than forecast at landfall, with a possible impact north of Tampico, albeit for the time being, until I see whether or not the center relocates, I agree with the Dynamic Model guidance.

Tomorrow is my Fiancees Birthday, however I will see about another update in the a.m.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL STORM INGRID…SPECIAL UPDATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 13, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Good to hear you spent quality time with your family. It looks like Ingrid will die in Mexico…good deal. I echo LT…pegged it again Storm!! Up here…the highest rainfall totals have been 18 inches around Boulder…with more to come…280 persons unaccounted for…4 confirmed dead.

  2. originallt says:

    Morning Storm, your analysis hit that more North and East location right on the head!,–Looking at this mornings satellite photos, nice job!

  3. David Kingsley says:

    Storm, Happy birthday to your fiancee. Thanks for taking time to update the weather. We moved from Kansas City to Mississippi 1 year before Katrina and have been avid readers of your work ever since

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