Good evening all!
It was not my intention to update this late, however spent some quality time with my youngest all day.
A special 8:00 P.M. Intermediate advisory was issued by the NHC, with a complete forecast discussion….forecast discussions normally come out only on the regular advisory schedule.
It was reported by the NHC that the Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Ingrid is much stronger than previously thought. The wind field has also expanded. At 5:00 p.m., maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, and have now increased to 60 mph. Based on this quick strengthening, a HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for portions of the Mexican coast. THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT… A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
The following information was available from the advisory, and is posted in the GLOBAL TRACKS map:
Current satellite loop imagery indicates a fairly well defined CDO feature, and banding north of the center. Albeit the latest wind shear map indicates some shear of about 15 knots from the west, both satellite imagery and upper level winds analysis indicates an excellent outflow channel developing.
Analysis of wind shear tendency indicates shear has decreased somewhat, and the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become more conducive for development in the next 12 hours or so. Based on the storm being pretty much stationary, I believe Ingrid could attain Hurricane status a little sooner than forecast. I am basing this off the fact, that she just went from 40 mph to 60 mph in 3 hours, with less than optimal wind shear conditions, with the outflow from the Pacific storm inhibiting her somewhat. This, and the way the coast is shaped in the BOC, allows for what we call forced convergence in which frictional effects aid in piling air toward the center of circulation.
Based on further analysis of satellite loop imagery, mainly IR2 Shortwave, and DVORAK channels, I believe we could very well see a center reformation taking place a little further north and east of where the center was reported by the aircraft. Placing the loops in motion, the banding and apparent circulation just don’t add up to the center near 19.2N. If you follow the banding features toward the center to where they spiral in and appear to “meet”, this is a close approximation to where the COC may be located.
At the moment however, I agree with the current forecast track from the NHC, which is inline with the Dynamic Model guidance for the 00Z run, but I prefer the north side of the package, as analysis of the current steering layers map shows the western periphery of the ridge over TX, has weakened during the past 3-4 hours, which should allow for a slightly more northward component to the storm. The forecast steering layers maps pretty much show a overall track similar to the guidance, however the GFS brings this ashore right now in the forecast steering, north of Tampico MX. Also bear in mind, as a storm becomes stronger, the steering layer changes to higher up in the atmosphere.
Putting all of this together, I believe Ingrid could be stronger than forecast at landfall, with a possible impact north of Tampico, albeit for the time being, until I see whether or not the center relocates, I agree with the Dynamic Model guidance.
Tomorrow is my Fiancees Birthday, however I will see about another update in the a.m.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)