SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 12, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening all!

This update will be regarding newly formed Tropical Depression TEN in the BOC.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT, information based on satellite, surface observations, and Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance aircraft, INVEST 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 10.

Since Tropical Storm warnings have been issued, intermediate advisories will continue to be issued.  As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT Intermediate advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Depression 10, and is contained in the Global Tracks map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN TRACKING MAP / ERROR CONE
T. D. TEN

T. D. TEN ERROR

The depression is reported moving W at 5 mph but appears almost stationary.  Satellite imagery indicates the depression is not as near organized as it was earlier today which may be attributed to 20 knots of wind shear over the area at the moment, based on analysis of the current wind shear map from  CIMSS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP

The most recent GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should gradually improve during the next 48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone becoming re-established over the southern BOC, to where upper level wind should remain conducive for further development during days 3 – 5.  Based on this, I do agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment.  However should the storm move a little slower than forecast, I cannot rule out a minimal hurricane prior to landfall.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 19.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 19.7N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.5N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.3N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.3N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 20.7N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 22.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

Analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps valid for 00Z this evening indicate the slow motion toward the west, and then the WNW motion.  Based on this analysis, and analysis of the GFS  18Z model run, I agree at the moment with the NHC forecast track, albeit I believe landfall based on the CURRENT parameters may be just north of Tampico.

Albeit the particular track of the NHC and Dynamic Model guidance will most likely occur, given the possibility of any center reformations, and/or any stalling longer than indicated, the forecast track may not be 100% cut and dry.  In fact, the 00Z Dynamic Model guidance just in, has shifted north once more.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gifT.D.TEN

Based on analysis this evening of the 500 mb pattern forecast from the Global models, somewhat of an agreement suggest the ridge forecast to be over the southern U.S., MAY begin to break down somewhat by day 4 – 4.5.  Should this system meander just enough, and strengthen quicker, the slim probability of it being drawn further north could exist. In fact, the GFS brings this north of Tampico at landfall as it stands at this time.

I have taken the 500 mb forecast from the GFS day 4.5, and drawn the flow, and circled the weakness location.

GFS 500 MB FORECAST
gfs_500_4e

The ECMWF is forecasting something very similar, except for a day later in the forecast.

Regardless, south Texas may very well pick up some needed precipitation from this system in about 6 days.

Residents of Mexico near Tampico should monitor the progress of this system closely, and take the necessary actions as required.

My next update will be sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 12, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Richard McDaniel says:

    Any reasonable chance that this can make it to South Texas ?

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Hello. Mr storm in was talking about the one model run you said had a storm coming in gulf in was wanting to know if the gulf was still going to get another threat. Greg mobile Alabama.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like guidance held true with 93l…at least so far…will still send this out as…like you said…this could bend and affect South Central Texas…eventually. You be da’ Man Storm!! Rain totals in the Boulder area are approaching 14 inches…what a mess…we have a stalled frontal boundary…plenty of Gulf and SW monsoonal moisture…this crap should have happened a month ago…crazy season all the way around!!

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