Good evening all!
This update will be regarding newly formed Tropical Depression TEN in the BOC.
At 5:00 p.m. EDT, information based on satellite, surface observations, and Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance aircraft, INVEST 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 10.
Since Tropical Storm warnings have been issued, intermediate advisories will continue to be issued. As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT Intermediate advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Depression 10, and is contained in the Global Tracks map:
The depression is reported moving W at 5 mph but appears almost stationary. Satellite imagery indicates the depression is not as near organized as it was earlier today which may be attributed to 20 knots of wind shear over the area at the moment, based on analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS.
The most recent GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should gradually improve during the next 48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone becoming re-established over the southern BOC, to where upper level wind should remain conducive for further development during days 3 – 5. Based on this, I do agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment. However should the storm move a little slower than forecast, I cannot rule out a minimal hurricane prior to landfall.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps valid for 00Z this evening indicate the slow motion toward the west, and then the WNW motion. Based on this analysis, and analysis of the GFS 18Z model run, I agree at the moment with the NHC forecast track, albeit I believe landfall based on the CURRENT parameters may be just north of Tampico.
Albeit the particular track of the NHC and Dynamic Model guidance will most likely occur, given the possibility of any center reformations, and/or any stalling longer than indicated, the forecast track may not be 100% cut and dry. In fact, the 00Z Dynamic Model guidance just in, has shifted north once more.
Based on analysis this evening of the 500 mb pattern forecast from the Global models, somewhat of an agreement suggest the ridge forecast to be over the southern U.S., MAY begin to break down somewhat by day 4 – 4.5. Should this system meander just enough, and strengthen quicker, the slim probability of it being drawn further north could exist. In fact, the GFS brings this north of Tampico at landfall as it stands at this time.
I have taken the 500 mb forecast from the GFS day 4.5, and drawn the flow, and circled the weakness location.
The ECMWF is forecasting something very similar, except for a day later in the forecast.
Regardless, south Texas may very well pick up some needed precipitation from this system in about 6 days.
Residents of Mexico near Tampico should monitor the progress of this system closely, and take the necessary actions as required.
My next update will be sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)