TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L / TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE / HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 11, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Really not much change in Tropical Storm Gabrielle’s forecast, nor Hurricane Humberto’s.

Based on satellite loop imagery, Gabrielle continues to be a naked Low Level swirl.

Information in the NHC 5:00 A.M. EDT forecast discussion indicates although she will be over warm water, models are in good agreement of strong shear to be a factor, and the NHC is forecasting weakening in about 36 hours.

GABRIELLE SATELLITE LOOP

Tropical Storm Humberto became our first hurricane of the season, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.  This makes Humberto a Category ONE hurricane on the Saffir – Simpson hurricane wind scale.  Satellite loop imagery this morning did indicate a slight eye feature on what little bit of visible and RGB imagery was available.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO SATELLITE LOOP

Humberto has now begun a path more to the right, and should begin to move north soon.  This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, and by Friday, a sharp turn toward the west is expected as the ridge becomes re-established north of the storm, and somewhat stronger.  The NHC indicates only some slight to moderate strengthening over the next 24-36 hours. before conditions become less favorable and he begins to weaken.

I will continue to monitor Humberto during the next 72-96 hours for any changes to steering and upper level pattern.

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L is now located over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Earlier this morning, the NHC had reported this system was still disorganized, which is confirmed by earlier satellite imagery.  However, in the past few hours, convection pretty much exploded over the center, and the system is better organized…in fact, if I didn’t know better, I’d say it looked almost to be a depression..although it appears most of the vorticity is more concentrated at the 700-500 mb level.  Satellite loops do show however, the circulation seems to be pretty compact and tight at this time.

INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 INVEST 93L TRACKING MAP
INVEST 93L

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
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Crossing over the Yucatan Peninsula should disrupt this somewhat, however we are dealing with a system very similar to what we saw in Fernand.  Being the core is not very large, and appears somewhat compact, tight, weak systems like this have no problem generally spinning up in the BOC.  One factor for this is the shape of the Mexican coastline, which basically induces the effect of forced convergence, helping pile up warm air at the surface.

Currently, the wind shear map indicates upper level winds are somewhat marginal.  The current GFS wind shear forecast still indicates upper level winds may become conducive for development of this disturbance, within about 24 hours of the disturbance entering the BOC.  Based on this, I am calling for slow development during the first 24 hours in the BOC until I see whether or not a center reformation takes place, which is not unusual with a developing system with some disruption.

Again, as I have always stated, steering currents can change in a matter of hours.  The Global Models have shifted their solution back further south, with a possible Tropical Storm making landfall in Central Mexico.  However, this will most likely change 2-3 more times, until we have a well defined LLC.  I will be watching this system closely, as even though models and guidance indicate a more west motion, water vapor loop imagery does not detect that deep of a ridge over the U.S., with a couple of mid-upper level lows which could induce a weakness over the GOMEX.  So, I will monitor this closely for any significant changes to the steering currents over the next 48-72 hours.

GFS
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical156

CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropical156

FIM

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L / TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE / HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 11, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    I’d like to take a moment to thank Storm and all the others on this site who have served our country with strength and grace to provide us with the freedoms we have. And also to thank those who serve with strength and grace stateside, in the military, police, fire, and other emergency response organizations who are there for us during the hurricanes and other weather-related disasters Storm tracks for us, and in fires and earthquakes, and for those times when others are eager to wrest our freedoms away from us like they tried to do on 9/11/01. The second greatest strength of this country, after its freedom, is the willingness of its people to nurture and succor total strangers in times of need, often in places they will never see, or to pur their own lives on hold and travel to those places to help fellow Americans in need. God bless America and her diverse people.

  2. dellamom says:

    Okay, we have four things on the nhc map again. A hurricane, a tropical storm, an orange circle and a yellow circle. Storm! Eat your Wheaties, my friend!

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    I guess those storms love Mexico…..Just weird how they keep forming in the same general area and going to the same general place….

    Never Forget 9/11 – God Bless America!

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo LT…always will remember 9/11. Closely watching 93L.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. –9-11, NEVER FORGET.

  6. DKMac says:

    Thanks Storm! Is this the latest date for the first hurricane to form in the past 50-odd years? Keeping my eye out on 93L.

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