Good evening all!
Due to the lateness (have been waiting for the FTP and Model Guidance info to update), this update will mainly concern INVEST 93L near the Yucatan Peninsula.
There has really been no change in the forecast thinking to both Gabrielle and Humberto. with the exceptions of Gabrielle has become decoupled, with the LLC just south of Bermuda and the convection off to the NE of the center. As far as Humberto, there has been a slight shift in track in that after the NW motion, he is forecast to make a very abrupt turn to the west.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L has been moving very slowly toward the W over the past few hours. Based on the ATCF / FTP 00Z data, the following information was available on INVEST 93L. It is noted the central pressure is down 1 mb.
Satellite loop imagery indicates although the convection has become less organized over the past few hours, the LLC can be seen clearly in the IR2 Shortwave loop.
Based on the latest forecast steering maps, valid for 00Z, this disturbance should continue W to just north of west over the next 72-96 hours. Models indicate at the moment this disturbance will be a slow mover…so thereafter the 72-96 hour time frame, a more defined WNW to NW motion may occur. Depending how slow this moves (right now the models have it in the GOMEX still at 120 hours out…that’s 5 days), will determine how far north it may be pulled. A quicker motion than shown by the steering forecast maps, then a further south track into Mexico should occur. Based on the current forecast motion however, a track toward the Brownsville TX / Padre Island area could occur. Based on the 3 following Global Models, GFS, CMC, and FIM, the CMC keeps this system weaker and brings it into Mexico in about 4-5 days. However, the GFS and FIM, bring whatever may develop, to the TX area mentioned. In fact, the most recent run of the FIM model has come in line with the GFS, after showing a landfall in central Mexico earlier. Based on this, I am to the right of the 00Z Dynamic Model Guidance TVCN, but not as far north as the right most tracks at the moment, due to the fact once this hits the Yucatan Peninsula, and emerges into the BOC, there could always be a center reformation or relocation.
Once this enters the BOC, upper level winds are currently forecast to fluctuate between marginal and conducive for the first 24 hours, then are forecast to become conducive for development. At the moment, the FIM and GFS are indicating a 1000 mb – 998 mb Tropical Storm. However, both track guidance and strength should not be held in high regard at the moment, until we see how this organizes in a few days, or not.
Given the uncertainty, and the recent shift of the FIM model with more of a track to the north, residents from the Padre Island / Brownsville TX area, southward to Tampico Mexico should monitor this disturbance closely for any significant changes over the next 96 hours.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)