TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 09, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Well, SURPRISE! SURPRISE!…Tropical Storm HUMBERTO spun up rather quickly over the weekend…I must say, I am impressed!

Based on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on HUMBERTO, and is posted in the tracking map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO TRACKING MAP
HUMBERTO

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

HUMBERTO developed rather quickly from Tropical Depression NINE yesterday.

Currently, HUMBERTO is moving toward the west at around 12 mph.  HUMBERTO is currently south of a fairly strong subtropical ridge in the EATL.  Analysis of the current steering layer mean and forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect this westward to WNW motion to continue for the next 60-72 hours.  Beyond that, the steering layers forecast indicates an approaching trof of low pressure will come in from over the Canary Islands, in addition to a slight weakness developing near 50W Longitude, which should induce a sharp turn toward the NW.  This motion should continue for about 48 hours, before the ridge is forecast to rebuild north of the storm, pulling back toward the WNW.  Based on this analysis, and analysis of the current Dynamic Model Guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (NHC TRACK IS MARKED OFCI)
12zatcfearlyinvest2best.HUMBERTO

Based on the current and forecast wind shear maps, HUMBERTO has an impressive upper level anticyclone overhead, and this feature could remain over the system for the next 72-96 hours.  Albeit I do agree with the NHC intensity forecast, should upper level winds remain as favorable as forecast by ALL of the models (8 knots) I cannot rule out HUMBERTO trying to make a run at Major Hurricane status prior to entering cooler waters and increasing shear.  Based on the shear forecast, HUMBERTO may lose upper air support in about 5-6 days.  Based on the stair step track, I will continue to monitor HUMBERTO for any significant changes over the next 5-7 days.

HUMBERTO SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 13.4N  22.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 13.6N  24.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 14.1N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 14.9N  27.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N  30.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 25.2N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the remnant of GABRIELLE for possible regeneration.  Albeit the NHC gives this area only a 20% chance, based on forecast motion, and current wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development as this disturbed weather continues moving toward the NNE over the next few days.

GABRIELLE REMNANT SATELLITE LOOP

I will be monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms near the Gulf of Honduras today, as they have become more consolidated over the past 6 hours, and satellite loop imagery indicates the presence of some overshooting cloud tops.  Analysis of the upper level divergence and lower level convergence values indicate while still fairly low, these values have increased over the  past 3 hours.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain marginal, however based on current and forecast steering, this could possibly enter the BOC, where upper level winds are forecast to become conducive for development in about 72 hours.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

I will also be monitoring cloudiness over the Africa continent for any development as these areas move into the Atlantic over the next few days.

EUMETSAT SATELLITE IMAGE

We could see some spin up in the BOC over the next 5-6 days, as 2 of the Global models indicate a weak close low, while the others indicate lowering of pressure.  The GFS develops a Tropical system around the 23rd, in the Caribbean near Honduras, and pulls it to south of western Cuba 2-3 days afterward.

The 500 mb anomaly departure maps indicate this as well, and the NCEP MULTI MODEL and Ensemble guidance indicates a strong probability of development in the BOC within the time specified.

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

NCEP ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 09, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. txwxchaser says:

    Thx StormW. Looks like something is trying to get going between Honduras and Grand Cayman. Any thoughts?

  2. dellamom says:

    Happy September 9 to all. Today is the 48th anniversary of the day Hurricane Betsy struck New Orleans after visiting other coastal communities along the way. Until Katrina, Betsy was the worst storm in most area residents’ memories. It was, I point out again, a “B” storm. It only takes one, and it can come at any point of the season, and start with any alphabet. Thanks for watching our backs out there Storm.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm–looks like to be a “fishy” Hurricane!

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like we’re gonna get a Hurricane. It’s looking like things are heating up for real this time. What do you think on the future BOC system…a U S threat?

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