TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 06, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

UPDATE…3:25 P.M. EDT…SEP. 06, 2013:

The disturbance which was located close to the Mexican coast earlier, had slowed down in forward speed, allowing the center to remain over warm water a little longer than forecast.  This disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression EIGHT by the NHC at 1:30 P.M. and is now moving ashore.  You can click on the map for information and graphics.

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

Purely crazy season!  The NHC has declared GABRIELLE dissipated.  Satellite imagery does indicate a recent flareup of convection over the area where the “center” would be located.  Current vorticity maps indicate this may be trying to regenerate, as the recent analysis indicated approximately 70 units of positive vorticity at 850 mb, and 80 units at the 925 mb level. However, with the remnant having moved NW over the past 12 hours, it is in an area where upper level winds are not conducive for development.  The upper level anticyclone remains in the south central Caribbean.  Although not too likely, I will continue to monitor the area for any signs of regeneration, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive in about 24-30 hours.

GABRIELLE REMNANT FLOATER LOOP

925 MB VORTICITY

850 MB VORTICITY

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 99L had one of the best satellite image presentations about 2 hours ago, since it was declared. However, satellite loop imagery indicates this is moving ashore at the moment.  Based on this, I am not expecting any further development of this disturbance.  Residents in the area should be alert for flash flooding and mudslides due to heavy rainfall.

INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L continues to move WNW in the EATL.

This disturbance is very disorganized.  Two factors that seem to be inhibiting this are, albeit not much, there is some dry air intruding into the system, and upper level winds are marginal at the moment, with increasing shear.  I will monitor this over the next 72 hours, as upper level winds may become conducive in about 60-72.

INVEST 98L SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, a couple of tropical waves will be watched as they move off the west African continent over the next few days.

EUMETSAT IMAGE (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ZOOM)

This season has been extremely strange.  He we are approaching the climatological peak of the season, and we should be tracking 3 if not four developed storms, and should have an active wave train over Africa.  However, satellite imagery shows basically NOTHING over the African Continent.  I must say, at the moment, I’m puzzled at to what is causing this “drought”.  I know one factor is we lost the MJO signal for quite a bit, and based on the current forecast for the MJO Multivariate Index, we may very well lose it again in about 5-7 days, and it is entering the Indian Ocean as of last update.  In the longer range, models are split as to what happens with the MJO…the GFS members indicate the Index will move into the zero circle, then swing back around to OCTANT 8 in 2 weeks or so.  The EUROPEAN members take it into OCTANTS 5 & 6.

CURRENT MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX

GFS MJO FORECAST

ECMWF MJO FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 06, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    I know people keep talking like this season is going nowhere, and we have had not major issues. Luckily the people on this site have a better grip. But, geez Louise, we have four, count ’em 4, circles on the map, and this isn’t the first time this season we have had multiple circles. Granted, they are not hurricanes. They are not even tropical storms for the most part. But they still require that Storm review all his data and analyze them to see what’s what. I’m not a Met, but I would assume a hurricane might be easier to comment upon because, well, because it’s a hurricane and they are more prone to certain behaviors than something without a steady core. And certain speeds and certain strengths result, usually, in certain behaviors. The stuff out there so far this year is so uncertain and problematic, I would imagine Storm has to take extra time to search any possible influencing factors, since even subtle influences make a difference in a small or developing system. For a Met, this type of season, i would think, is much more involved. And also, after the season is over, the Mets will have time to review from the back side and try to figure out why things happened the way they did. Lots more for the rest of us to learn from Storm, who is the best Met I know and one of the few willing to share his skill with the rest of us. A bust of a season? I think not. (Besides, November 30 is a l-o-o-o-o-ng way away.) Okay. I’m done now. Thanks for the opportunity to get that off my tiny mind so I can concentrate on another thing now. 🙂

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Do you think maybe we just won’t have any major hurricanes? I know that sounds weird..right? Just don’t seem like anything can get going.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks again Storm. Well, about the season, as Yogi said, “It ain’t over till it’s over”!–Still a long way to go.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. One things for sure…this is keeping you busy…no matter how lackluster the season has been. You have to wonder if we will see a Hurricane this season!!

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