Full plate today…Good day to everyone!
Tropical Depression SEVEN was upgraded to Tropical Storm GABRIELLE yesterday evening by the NHC. As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available, and is posted on the Global Tracks map:
GABRIELLE FORECAST ERROR CONE
NHC WATCH / WARNING MAP (CLICK ON MAP FOR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS)
The latest motion reported was to the NW, which would tend to make sense, albeit a slight shift to WNW is plausible, based on analysis of the current low level steering mean.
Analysis of IR2 Shortwave satellite loop imagery, indicates GABRIELLE may have become almost stationary again, and indications of a possible center reformation to the east, or SE of Puerto Rico may be occurring.
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP SAN JUAN
Based on this, combined with the forecast steering layers maps run, valid for 12Z, the forecast track for GABRIELLE may not be concrete at the moment. Should a center reformation occur in the areas mentioned, model guidance for one, would have to shift back to the right, and depending on how far the center may possibly reform, could change the guidance track, especially if Gabrielle slows or even stalls for a time. Albeit this could occur, I prefer the overall look of the track, with the exception of a possible more WNW track for a brief period, bringing GABRIELLE closer to the SE Bahamas, before the approaching trof has a greater affect on her. Even with this current uncertainty, satellite imagery indicates the trof is approaching at a decent pace, and appears to have deepened somewhat. Based on this, I don’t feel at the moment there will be too much deviation from the possible track I just mentioned. However, let’s see what happens over the next few hours, and what consecutive guidance runs indicate.
Based on either scenario, the current wind shear forecast shows upper level winds to become more favorable over the next 12-18 hours, and remain somewhat favorable through 42-48 hours. If GABRIELLE takes the forecast track, she will encounter some shear not too long after.
I will continue to monitor GABRIELLE for any significant changes throughout the day.
Residents in the SE Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system for any significant changes.
The trof of low pressure in the BOC has been designated INVEST 99L. Satellite loop imagery indicates this area may be trying to consolidate a Low Level Circulation (LLC) albeit weak at the moment. An increase and consolidation of convection is also noted.
This trof is moving toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48 hours. Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, upper level winds are marginal for development, but are forecast to become conducive during the next 24-36 hours.
Based on this, 99L may become better organized, and I won’t rule out the probability of seeing a depression prior to landfall in Mexico.
I will continue to monitor this area throughout the day for any significant changes.
The Tropical Wave in the CATL has been designated INVEST 98L. Albeit there seems to be a slight organization, dry air will most likely inhibit any quick development of this. Upper level winds are marginal at the moment, and based on a possible WNW to NW track, wind shear will increase in about 60-72 hours.
I will continue to monitor this wave over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.
The area of disturbed weather NE of GABRIELLE, which was circled earlier in the NHC Tropical Weather outlook appears to have been pretty much absorbed by Gabrielle.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)