TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 97L / YUCATAN TROPICAL WAVE / EATL TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 04, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Shower and thunderstorm activity still persists around the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a Tropical Wave.  The center or axis of this feature is hard to discern on satellite loop imagery, however may be located just west of the thunderstorm activity over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current and forecast steering layers maps indicate this feature is moving toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 72 hours.  As this enters fully into the BOC, I will be monitoring it closely for development, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development in about 24 hours.

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicates Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L continues to become better organized, with heavy convection pretty much over the center.  The NHC has increased the probability of 97L becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours to MEDIUM (40%), and to HIGH (60%) over the next 5 days.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on the 12Z ATCF FTP data update, the following information was provided on INVEST 97L:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 INVEST 97L TRACKING MAP
INVEST 97L

INVEST 97L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP / CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP

The disturbance is still moving very slowly, and taking on more of a WNW track.  Based on forecast steering maps from yesterday, it was indicated 97L would have moved west further before being tugged northward.  The Dynamic Model guidance had in fact been showing this turn, with the exception of one run, where they had shifted west.  Upon analysis this morning of the current and forecast steering layers maps, and analysis of various satellite channels loop imagery, I found the glitch in my thinking on previous forecast track.  The current steering layers map, and satellite loop imagery, indicates a stronger and larger ridge moving in from the west, thereby allowing the trof to nudge further south, and become a little stronger than forecast in the forecast steering maps.  So pretty much, the steering layer forecast maps have initialized a weaker scenario in regard to the U.S. ridge, and the east coast trof, as well as a larger break noted in between the two ridges.  This is allowing for the current motion of 97L.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

PREVIOUS 3 HOURS STEERING

FORECAST STEERING LAYERS MAPS VALID 12Z

Based on re-analysis of these factors, combined with placing the forecast steering in motion, I have to concur with the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance TVCC / TVCN tracks, until such a time we see how 97L interacts with the area to its NE.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyinvest2best97L

Upper level winds are conducive for further development with an upper level anticyclone established above 97L.  Based on the GFS wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to remain favorable during the next 42-48 hours in the forecast track, becoming marginal once 97L moves north of the islands.  As 97L begins to move more toward the NNE and NE, upper level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on these parameters, save land interaction with Puerto Rico, 97L should continue to organize slowly today, and based on satellite imagery, could be close to depression status.

I will be monitoring this disturbance closely for any significant changes to upper level winds and future steering.

I am also interested in the area to the NE of 97L, as convective activity has increased and become consolidated.  I will be monitoring this closely for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I will be monitoring a Tropical Wave approaching 30W Longitude over the next 72-96 hours for any signs of development.  Upper level winds do not currently support development, however based on possible track by forecast steering, upper level winds will become conducive within 72 hours.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 97L / YUCATAN TROPICAL WAVE / EATL TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 04, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like TD7 formed…one for the fish.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! ok, it is September. What is the excuse now….. 🙂
    It is good though….no one is threatened by a major hurricane.

  3. Jerilyn (jerrob) says:

    what are your thoughts on 97L and the wave to the NE of it? will they compete for the moisture or will the wave hinder 97l’s formation?

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

  5. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, I wouldn’t want to be a tropical forecaster this year. Your busy but nothing to talk about LOL. Lots of potential but nothing it is certenly a wierd year so far. Where is the match thats going to light the fuse? Heck where is the fuse!!!! If it ever gets going its going to be crazy ( thats my guess) Again thanks for what you do!!!!

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