I have band practice tonight, so I will not be updating later. I decided to do a short post however.
We now have T.D. 7, south of Puerto Rico. This has organized very quickly from just a few hours ago. Based on the 5:00 p.m. advisory, the following was available from the NHC, and is posted on the tracking map. Right now, based on conditions analyzed earlier this morning, I have to agree with the NHC intensity forecast, however if conditions remain favorable before interaction with Puerto Rico, I wouldn’t rule out 45mph strength prior to landfall.
Based on analysis of forecast steering today, and in line with Dynamic Model Guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track at this time.
I will have anther update in the a.m.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)