SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO…SEP. 04, 2013…ISSUED 6:40 P.M. PHFC

Good evening!

I have band practice tonight, so I will not be updating later.  I decided to do a short post however.

We now have T.D. 7, south of Puerto Rico.  This has organized very quickly from just a few hours ago.  Based on the 5:00 p.m. advisory, the following was available from the NHC, and is posted on the tracking map.  Right now, based on conditions analyzed earlier this morning, I have to agree with the NHC intensity forecast, however if conditions remain favorable before interaction with Puerto Rico, I wouldn’t rule out 45mph strength prior to landfall.

GLOBAL TRACKS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 TRACKING MAP AND ERROR CONE
T.D.7

T.D.7 ERROR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FLOATER LOOP IMAGERY

Based on analysis of forecast steering today, and in line with Dynamic Model Guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track at this time.

I will have anther update in the a.m.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO…SEP. 04, 2013…ISSUED 6:40 P.M. PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Good morning Storm and all, Storm a question about Gabrielle, I know the official position as of 8am , 9-5-13, is 17.7N and 67.4W , which would have the storm located off the SW coast of PR, BUT vis. satellite photos this morning clearly(at least to me)show that the center is just off the East Coast of PR. Could there be a center reformation going on at this time?

  2. originallt says:

    We have Gabriella, as of 11pm Sept. 4th.–top winds 40mph. Looks like Storm’s forecast of a 45mph storm affecting Pr and Eastern DR will be right on target!

  3. Ethan says:

    Still ominously quiet in the gulf.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…hope practice goes well!!

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