Good day everyone!
Shower and thunderstorm activity shows little change over the past few hours, in association with a Tropical Wave located near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Based on the current steering layer mean, this disturbed weather should move toward a NW path during the next 12-18 hours. Analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps indicates a more westerly flow to begin thereafter.
The current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates upper level winds are currently marginal, and analysis of the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become more conducive for some development of this wave, as it enters the BOC (Bay Of Campeche) during the next 24 hours. This system could develop, and follow a track fairly similar to Fernand, which came ashore in Mexico.
I will continue to monitor this area closely for any significant changes regarding upper level winds and steering currents.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L continues to move very slowly toward the WNW, after having been stationary over the past 24 hours. Satellite loop imagery indicates an increase of convection, however it remains disorganized. This low is associated with a larger low pressure gyre which is elongated. The entire area keeps trying to lower pressures at the surface, and with another low to the east of 97L, there is a competition for energy, in addition to the energy being spread out. Albeit upper level winds are very favorable at the moment, the overall large circulation near the surface is inhibiting any quick development.
The recent satellite loop images indicate convection may now be trying to build closer to the center, in which the circulation is noted now west of the Lesser Antilles in the IR2 channel above.
Yesterday I had mentioned going on a limb, in that 97L may come further west before moving toward a more distinct WNW motion. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering maps this morning, I believe 97L will now move toward a north of west motion for today, and should pass just south of Puerto Rico, and maybe passing over the western edge of the island, or extreme eastern portion of Hispaniola. The 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance has swung around in fair agreement of my forecast track assessment.
97L 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
The current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain quite favorable for development over the next 72-96 hours over a large portion of the central Caribbean. However, as 97L leaves the Caribbean, it may encounter wind shear north of it shortly thereafter. Although the winds at the surface in the eastern / central Caribbean are brisk, I believe as 97L tends to gain latitude, may begin some increased organization. The slower 97L moves, and weaker it remains, it may even move closer to Cuba before being affected by a weakness in the ridge in a few days. The CMC develops this into a Tropical Storm north of Hispaniola, however westerly shear in the forecast may say otherwise.
I will continue to monitor this system closely for any significant changes during the next 48-72 hours.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L has been moving slowly toward the WNW to NW most of this morning. Upper level winds are still marginal, but may become conducive in about 48 hours for the system, should it continue toward the NW.
Based on forecast steering, this will probably recurve over the next 72-96 hours.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes to the forecast steering pattern over the next 72 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)