Good day everyone!
Once again this morning, we have thunderstorm activity flaring up in the FL. Straits. Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates this is associated with an upper level low over the area. Visible and RGB imagery do not indicate a surface circulation, and buoy data from around the area indicates surface pressures remain high. I am not expecting development of this area.
The tropical wave in the CATL, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is still displaying disorganized convection. This is a large circulation, however the thunderstorm activity is well east of the LLC, which is located near 14.0N…50.0W.
Based on the current steering layer mean, and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this to continue to move toward the west over the next 36-48 hours. Thereafter, a more WNW may be in order as a weakness in the ridge develops of the U.S. east coast.
The only model showing development of this, is the CMC. I cannot rule this out just yet, as if forward motion slows just a little, upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive near 60W longitude in about 40 hours. This could allow for an increase in convection, possibly closer to the center.
I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes as it nears the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave getting ready to enter the EATL will be monitored for development as it moves toward the WNW over the next few days. This disturbance has been designated INVEST 96L.
The current and forecast steering indicates more of a north of due west motion over the next few days, however, as the system becomes better organized, it is forecast to recurve, which may take place around 40-45W longitude. As we go into September, this is almost a typical scenario for systems that emerge off Africa, and strengthen steady or quickly. Looking at forecast steering, a system would have to come off Africa, pretty much below 12N to become a long tracker. Current wind shear analysis indicates upper level winds are marginal, due to strong easterly shear. The wave is entering an area where upper level winds begin to diverge, however, I don’t expect to see this begin to take off until it reaches near 30W, where upper divergence should be much better. Upper level winds are forecast to become pretty favorable over the wave in about 30-36 hours. Based on this, we could see a tropical depression develop during the next 2 days. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) chance of this wave becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes.
I am standing firm in that we should see an increase in activity in about 5-6 days, as the MJO is in Octant 1 at the moment, and is forecast to continue eastward propagation with the signal strengthening as it moves through Octant 1.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)