Good day everyone!
I am currently monitoring a marked increase in thunderstorm activity between the NW Bahamas and Miami, associated with an ULL. Convection has become more concentrated over the past few hours.
I will be monitoring this for any signs of a developing surface reflection. Of note, surface pressures around the area from buoy observations, indicate pressures are holding on the average of 30.00 in., however since the 25th, the overall general trend indicates a lowering of surface pressures within the Diurnal readings.
NDBC DATA (GREEN LINE = BAROMETRIC PRESSURE)
Upper level winds are currently not favorable for development, and are forecast to remain pretty much not conducive for development. However, being this feature is baroclinic in nature, having been part of the stationary front draped over the SE coast, I will continue watching this for any sub-tropical development.
Thunderstorm activity near Honduras, is associated with a Tropical Wave moving to the west. This will be monitored over the next 24 hours. Wind shear values are only 15 knots over this area, however the entire wave should run into land in about 24-36 hours, so I do not believe development will be able to occur.
I am also looking at an area of heavy convection entering the Caribbean just NE of Panama. Albeit rotation is not detected, upper level winds are favorable for development in the area, which is under the influence of an upper level anticyclone at the moment. Based on the recent GFS wind shear forecast, this upper feature is forecast to continue almost in tandem with this convection, and expand, making upper level conditions favorable for development over a majority of the Caribbean in about 18-24 hours. I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, convection has diminished overnight in the CATL area I have been monitoring. However, a LLC has been detected on satellite loop imagery near 11.0N…45.0W.
Albeit not optimal, upper level winds are only 10 knots over this area in a narrow band directly over the circulation. I will be monitoring this area to see if convective activity could redevelop over or near the circulation.
The Tropical Wave in the EATL continues to move toward the west. Satellite loop imagery indicates thunderstorm activity may be a bit more organized over the past few hours. Again, the NHC does not have this in the Graphical Tropical Outlook, however they still indicate a 30% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. I do believe this will be designated an INVEST in the next 48 hours.
The NCEP / EMC Multi model and NCEP Ensembles indicate a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days.
While it is still “quiet”, this would be a good time for people to review their Hurricane Preparedness Plans and Evacuation Routes. If you have pets, I have a link under the links column that lists pet friendly places for each state.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)