TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 27, 2013…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

I am currently monitoring a marked increase in thunderstorm activity between the NW Bahamas and Miami, associated with an ULL.  Convection has become more concentrated over the past few hours.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I will be monitoring this for any signs of a developing surface reflection.  Of note, surface pressures around the area from buoy observations, indicate pressures are holding on the average of 30.00 in., however since the 25th, the overall general trend indicates a lowering of surface pressures within the Diurnal readings.

NDBC DATA (GREEN LINE = BAROMETRIC PRESSURE)

Upper level winds are currently not favorable for development, and are forecast to remain pretty much not conducive for development.  However, being this feature is baroclinic in nature, having been part of the stationary front draped over the SE coast, I will continue watching this for any sub-tropical development.

Thunderstorm activity near Honduras, is associated with a Tropical Wave moving to the west.  This will be monitored over the next 24 hours.  Wind shear values are only 15 knots over this area, however the entire wave should run into land in about 24-36 hours, so I do not believe development will be able to occur.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

I am also looking at an area of heavy convection entering the Caribbean just NE of Panama.  Albeit rotation is not detected, upper level winds are favorable for development in the area, which is under the influence of an upper level anticyclone at the moment.  Based on the recent GFS wind shear forecast, this upper feature is forecast to continue almost in tandem with this convection, and expand, making upper level conditions favorable for development over a majority of the Caribbean in about 18-24 hours.  I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 24 HOURS

Elsewhere, convection has diminished overnight in the CATL area I have been monitoring.  However, a LLC has been detected on satellite loop imagery near 11.0N…45.0W.

Albeit not optimal, upper level winds are only 10 knots over this area in a narrow band directly over the circulation.  I will be monitoring this area to see if convective activity could redevelop over or near the circulation.

The Tropical Wave in the EATL continues to move toward the west.  Satellite loop imagery indicates thunderstorm activity may be a bit more organized over the past few hours.  Again, the NHC does not have this in the Graphical Tropical Outlook, however they still indicate a 30% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.  I do believe this will be designated an INVEST in the next 48 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The NCEP / EMC Multi model and NCEP Ensembles indicate a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days.

NCEP / EMC FORECAST

While it is still “quiet”, this would be a good time for people to review their Hurricane Preparedness Plans and Evacuation Routes.  If you have pets, I have a link under the links column that lists pet friendly places for each state.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 27, 2013…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I agree…nIce post Dellamom and a sad post Penny.

  2. Penny says:

    We evacuated during Rita, but our neighbor stayed. He tells the story of it being dead quiet after she blew threw and hearing a rumble sound coming down the road. Looked out his window and there was a horse running down the road, with a phone number spray painted on it. True story. Very sad.

    • TexasHurricane says:

      That is sad…. We evacuated for Rita too. No power for 2 weeks. Ughh

      • dellamom says:

        My Northshore house is north of I-12 (outside of mandatory evacuation areas), doesn’t flood, has no trees near the house, has a well, and we have a generator that runs on natural gas, gasoline or propane, so it’s going to be the evacuation point for our southshore family. My older stepson’s long-time girlfriend’s family has horses. You shoulda seen my husband’s face when I told Lauren they would be welcome to put the horses in the garage if that would work. I told her it has a concrete floor and I didn’t know if hay on the concrete would make it habitable because I don’t have horses. She said they have somewhere they usually evacuat them to, but if they needed to bring them to us, hay on the floor would work just fine. They live in Braithewaite … way down the toe of the Louisiana boot. After she left, I asked him if he could in good conscience tell them they needed to leave their horses to die, and he said he could not. So … in addition to five families and assorted cats and dogs, we may have a few horses for the next evacuation. I don’t always make his life comfortable, but I make it interesting. 🙂

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for mentioning the pets. During Katrina, many people left their pets with a few days’ supply of food and water, thinking we’d all be back in 3 days, just like always. Actually, had the levee not failed AFTER the hurricane passed, they would have been correct. They came back weeks later to the remains of flooding and with dead pets. My brother-in-law’s neighbor chose to stay because she didn’t know where she could go and take her Rottweiler. The dog was found dead in the flooded home, and she was found dead in the attic. I always book at hotels that take dogs.
    HOWEVER, after Katrina, my insurance company asked if I had pet boarding expenses to claim. Apparently my homeowners insurance covered pet boarding during an evacuation. While I did not need that, they paid for day-boarding of my dog after we returned until I could get my fence put back up. Who knew??? So, y’all might want to check with your agents to see if your coverage has that provision or if it is available for a nominal fee. It sure beats coming home to a dead pet or dying because you can’t leave your pet (that would be me if I couldn’t take them).

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