SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…AUG. 26, 2013…ISSUED 9:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening all!

Nothing of immediate concern…however we may be seeing signs to the end of the “lull”.  Rest time may be coming to an end.

The elongated area I have been monitoring, has had thunderstorm activity consolidate more in 2 areas, with the area farthest west displaying vorticity at the 850 mb level.  The area east of that has been consolidating over the past several hours.  This may be an indication one or both of these areas may try to slowly develop over the next 72-96 hours.  We’ll see how this area holds together overnight, and I’ll continue to monitor the area for any signs of organization and / or signs of a surface feature wanting to develop.

Upper level winds are forecast to remain somewhat favorable over the next 36 -42 hours, and become a little more conducive as the area near 50W enters the Caribbean.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

850 MB VORTICITY MAP

The Tropical Wave I have been monitoring that was south of the Cape Verde islands yesterday and this morning, has shown a moderate increase in thunderstorm activity, and has become more consolidated.  It can be seen in the satellite loop near 30W.

As this wave moves toward the west, upper level winds are forecast to become very favorable in about 5-6 days near the Lesser Antilles, CATL and EATL.  Although not in the graphical tropical weather outlook, the NHC has given the wave a 30% probability for development into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262340
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND...LOCATED INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48     HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS        EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL    DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A   LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE       TROPICAL  WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT    EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED    MILES INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW   CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING   THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

Again, in this forecasters opinion, along with  good consensus of the meteorological community, September could be extremely active.

Here is a post published by Dr. Jeff Masters, regarding activity for September.  I figured all of you would enjoy reading it.
Jeff Masters says; "An active weather pattern coming to the       Tropical Atlantic"

It’s been an unusually quiet August for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and if we finish the month without a hurricane, it will mark the first year since 2002 without an August hurricane. However, the quiet weather pattern we’ve been blessed with is about to come to an end, as conditions favorable for hurricane formation move into place for the last few days of August and the first week of September. The big guns of the African Monsoon are firing off a salvo of African tropical waves over the next two weeks that will find the most favorable conditions for development that we’ve seen this year. While there is currently a new outbreak of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Eastern Atlantic, the latest European model forecast calls for a reduction in dry air and dust over the Tropical Atlantic during the 7 – 14 day period, accompanied by low wind shear. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days, has begun a new active phase. The most active part of the MJO has not yet crossed into the Atlantic, but is expected to do so during the period 7 – 14 days from now. The MJO will bring rising air that will aid strong thunderstorm updrafts and thus tropical storms–and their subsequent intensification into hurricanes. According to Dr. Michael Ventrice, an MJO expert at WSI, Inc., the latest run of the GFS model predicts that this MJO event will be the 3rd strongest in the Western Hemisphere since 1989. During the last four comparable strong MJO events, 68% of all the tropical depressions that formed during these events (21 out of 31 storms) intensified into hurricanes. The MJO will likely continue to support Atlantic hurricane activity through September 15. The MJO is then expected to progress into the Western Pacific for the last half of September, which would likely bring sinking air over the Atlantic and a quieter portion of hurricane season.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/aug26_sal.jpg

Saharan Air Layer analysis at 8 am EDT on August 26, 2013. A burst of dust and dry air had emerged over the Eastern Atlantic, along with a new tropical wave to watch just south of the driest air. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMMS and NOAA/HRD.

The first tropical wave to watch is one that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 – 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but is relatively thin on heavy thunderstorm activity. It has not yet earned status as an area of interest (“Invest”) by NHC, but they are giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Saturday. The wave will encounter an eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that moved off the coast of South America on Monday. This atmospheric disturbance, moving eastwards across the tropical Atlantic at about 25 – 40 mph, has a great deal of upward-moving air, which may help the tropical wave develop when the two interact beginning on Wednesday. The UKMET model is predicting that the wave will develop into a tropical storm by Saturday, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The other models show limited or no development. There will be a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast at the end of the week that will be capable of causing the wave to recurve and miss the Lesser Antilles, but it is too early to say how likely this is to occur.

There is much greater model consensus on developing a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave would appear to have a high chance of recurvature, according to the latest run of the GFS model.
Jeff Masters

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…AUG. 26, 2013…ISSUED 9:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm i am not trying to ask a crazy question but since we are at the end of august if anything forms which way do you think the steering pattern will be for september? Do you think the East Coast or gulf Coast is at risk? Thanks Mr storm for your hard work.

    • I believe it will fluctuate…however, if the pattern continues, I believe anything that may make it into the Caribbean, would pose a Gulf Coast threat. It would seem anything that develops above 15N, could be fair game for the U.S. east coast, or recurvature, depending on the strength of the system, and strength of the mean trof.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks so much Storm for this detailed late report. I guess our highest activity this year will be right about at the statistical peak of the Hurricane season, which is about Sept. 10th or so.

  3. Monty says:

    Yeah Storm…it’s like all of the Bears are coming out of hibernation…way too damn eerie. Something is brewing…glad to know we have the Jedi Master at the controls!! Thanks Senior Chief!!

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