Good evening all!
Nothing of immediate concern…however we may be seeing signs to the end of the “lull”. Rest time may be coming to an end.
The elongated area I have been monitoring, has had thunderstorm activity consolidate more in 2 areas, with the area farthest west displaying vorticity at the 850 mb level. The area east of that has been consolidating over the past several hours. This may be an indication one or both of these areas may try to slowly develop over the next 72-96 hours. We’ll see how this area holds together overnight, and I’ll continue to monitor the area for any signs of organization and / or signs of a surface feature wanting to develop.
Upper level winds are forecast to remain somewhat favorable over the next 36 -42 hours, and become a little more conducive as the area near 50W enters the Caribbean.
The Tropical Wave I have been monitoring that was south of the Cape Verde islands yesterday and this morning, has shown a moderate increase in thunderstorm activity, and has become more consolidated. It can be seen in the satellite loop near 30W.
As this wave moves toward the west, upper level winds are forecast to become very favorable in about 5-6 days near the Lesser Antilles, CATL and EATL. Although not in the graphical tropical weather outlook, the NHC has given the wave a 30% probability for development into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
000 ABNT20 KNHC 262340 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND...LOCATED INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Again, in this forecasters opinion, along with good consensus of the meteorological community, September could be extremely active. Here is a post published by Dr. Jeff Masters, regarding activity for September. I figured all of you would enjoy reading it. Jeff Masters says; "An active weather pattern coming to the Tropical Atlantic"
It’s been an unusually quiet August for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and if we finish the month without a hurricane, it will mark the first year since 2002 without an August hurricane. However, the quiet weather pattern we’ve been blessed with is about to come to an end, as conditions favorable for hurricane formation move into place for the last few days of August and the first week of September. The big guns of the African Monsoon are firing off a salvo of African tropical waves over the next two weeks that will find the most favorable conditions for development that we’ve seen this year. While there is currently a new outbreak of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Eastern Atlantic, the latest European model forecast calls for a reduction in dry air and dust over the Tropical Atlantic during the 7 – 14 day period, accompanied by low wind shear. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days, has begun a new active phase. The most active part of the MJO has not yet crossed into the Atlantic, but is expected to do so during the period 7 – 14 days from now. The MJO will bring rising air that will aid strong thunderstorm updrafts and thus tropical storms–and their subsequent intensification into hurricanes. According to Dr. Michael Ventrice, an MJO expert at WSI, Inc., the latest run of the GFS model predicts that this MJO event will be the 3rd strongest in the Western Hemisphere since 1989. During the last four comparable strong MJO events, 68% of all the tropical depressions that formed during these events (21 out of 31 storms) intensified into hurricanes. The MJO will likely continue to support Atlantic hurricane activity through September 15. The MJO is then expected to progress into the Western Pacific for the last half of September, which would likely bring sinking air over the Atlantic and a quieter portion of hurricane season.
Saharan Air Layer analysis at 8 am EDT on August 26, 2013. A burst of dust and dry air had emerged over the Eastern Atlantic, along with a new tropical wave to watch just south of the driest air. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMMS and NOAA/HRD.
The first tropical wave to watch is one that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 – 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but is relatively thin on heavy thunderstorm activity. It has not yet earned status as an area of interest (“Invest”) by NHC, but they are giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Saturday. The wave will encounter an eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that moved off the coast of South America on Monday. This atmospheric disturbance, moving eastwards across the tropical Atlantic at about 25 – 40 mph, has a great deal of upward-moving air, which may help the tropical wave develop when the two interact beginning on Wednesday. The UKMET model is predicting that the wave will develop into a tropical storm by Saturday, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The other models show limited or no development. There will be a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast at the end of the week that will be capable of causing the wave to recurve and miss the Lesser Antilles, but it is too early to say how likely this is to occur.
There is much greater model consensus on developing a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave would appear to have a high chance of recurvature, according to the latest run of the GFS model.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)