God evening all!
Shortly after my previous update, TD 6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand, which seemed pretty much warranted by the steady organization, attributed to favorable upper level winds, and moderate TCHP. The following was available from the NHC as of the initial 7:00 p.m. EDT advisory:
6:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 25Location: 19.2°N 95.8°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery suggests the center may be relocating underneath a CDO feature, and may be closer to shore now. At any rate, with the rapid increase of convection, I believe Fernand may be close to the 60 mph threshold as per the NHC intensity forecast.
Based on forecast steering maps valid for 00Z, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and Fernand should be ashore tomorrow, where weakening will begin.
Residents of Vera Cruz should be alert for flash flooding and possible mudslides as Fernand moves ashore, and prepare accordingly.
I will have another update in the a.m., along with the remainder of the tropics.
Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)