TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 25, 2013…ISSUED 8:55 P.M. EDT…PHFC

God evening all!

Shortly after my previous update, TD 6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand, which seemed pretty much warranted by the steady organization, attributed to favorable upper level winds, and moderate TCHP.  The following was available from the NHC as of the initial 7:00 p.m. EDT advisory:

6:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 25Location: 19.2°N 95.8°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 45 mph

HURREVAC TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TRACKING MAP
FERNAND 72

Recent satellite loop imagery suggests the center may be relocating underneath a CDO feature, and may be closer to shore now.  At any rate, with the rapid increase of convection, I believe Fernand may be close to the 60 mph threshold as per the NHC intensity forecast.

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Based on forecast steering maps valid for 00Z, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and Fernand should be ashore tomorrow, where weakening will begin.

Residents of Vera Cruz should be alert for flash flooding and possible mudslides as Fernand moves ashore, and prepare accordingly.

I will have another update in the a.m., along with the remainder of the tropics.

Have a blessed evening.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 25, 2013…ISSUED 8:55 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks as always Storm. Fernand looks to be another disappointment in a whackadoo season…next please.

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