Good day everyone!
Still quite in the tropics.
An area of thunderstorms has flared up off the north FL. coast near the big bend area. These storms are being enhanced by diffluence aloft, and in combination with the SE flow across the area.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in the central Caribbean have increased over the past few hours, and are associated with a westward moving tropical wave. Based on analysis of the current wind shear map, and the wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are not favorable for development at the moment, and become only marginal over the next 48 hours. Based on this, I do not believe development will take place, before this runs into land over Nicaragua and Honduras. I will be monitoring this for any significant changes however.
Shower and thunderstorm activity in the CATL within the ITCZ has diminished, and become more scattered, but will be monitored as upper level conditions become a little more conducive for development during the next 24-48 hours.
Convective activity near the Cape Verde islands and west coast of Africa has pretty much dissipated, albeit I will continue to monitor this area, as cyclonic turning is noted in what cloud cover is present. Other than that, there is really no appreciable wave train to speak of, with the exception of a couple of areas over central Africa at the moment, which will be looked at upon them entering the EATL.
Computer models do not show any development, with the exception of the GFS and CMC around 31 AUG-01 SEP.
Dynamic models regarding the MJO Multivariate index, and OLR anomalies are still in agreement of the MJO entering Octants 8 and 1 very soon. This should cause an increase in tropical activity as stated prior.
Overall, this season appears just somewhat strange to me, in that we have had an almost constant level of above normal wind shear over the Caribbean, as well as lack of instability. Shear has seen a decrease in the Tropical Atlantic, however instability is below the climatological values and has been for the majority of this season. It seems to me somewhat strange to have these conditions present, especially the shear, during a neutral, cold bias ENSO state.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)