TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOSPSI…AUG. 22, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

Still quite in the tropics.

An area of thunderstorms has flared up off the north FL. coast near the big bend area.  These storms are being enhanced by diffluence aloft, and in combination with the SE flow across the area.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Shower and thunderstorm activity in the central Caribbean have increased over the past few hours, and are associated with a westward moving tropical wave.  Based on analysis of the current wind shear map, and the wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are not favorable for development at the moment, and become only marginal over the next 48 hours.  Based on this, I do not believe development will take place, before this runs into land over Nicaragua and Honduras.  I will be monitoring this for any significant changes however.

Shower and thunderstorm activity in the CATL within the ITCZ has diminished, and become more scattered, but will be monitored as upper level conditions become a little more conducive for development during the next 24-48 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Convective activity near the Cape Verde islands and west coast of Africa has pretty much dissipated, albeit I will continue to monitor this area, as cyclonic turning is noted in what cloud cover is present.  Other than that, there is really no appreciable wave train to speak of, with the exception of a couple of areas over central Africa at the moment, which will be looked at upon them entering the EATL.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

EUMETSAT IMAGERY LOOP

Computer models do not show any development, with the exception of the GFS and CMC around 31 AUG-01 SEP.

Dynamic models regarding the MJO Multivariate index, and OLR anomalies are still in agreement of the MJO entering Octants 8 and 1 very soon.  This should cause an increase in tropical activity as stated prior.

Overall, this season appears just somewhat strange to me, in that we have had an almost constant level of above normal wind shear over the Caribbean, as well as lack of instability.  Shear has seen a decrease in the Tropical Atlantic, however instability is below the climatological values and has been for the majority of this season.  It seems to me somewhat strange to have these conditions present, especially the shear, during a neutral, cold bias ENSO state.

CARIBBEAN / TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR (VHSD) AND VERTICAL INSTABILITY (THDV)

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOSPSI…AUG. 22, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks again Storm. Yes, this season seems strange indeed.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I still think you and Elliot are right…something is looming on the horizon…definitely a strange season indeed. How about the amount of dry air in the ATL??

    • Thanks Monty. It’s beginning to look that way. I have done a little bit of thought on this, and I think what we are seeing with the dry air, other than the abundance of SAL we have seen, it appears to be a natural occurrence from just the A/B high. My take is, since we haven’t seen a real active signal from the MJO, which if it is moving in a normal pattern, seems to offset the affects of high pressure by sending moisture into the atmosphere. It would appear the lack of the signal allows for high pressure to act naturally (sinking air, which is termed subsidence). As the air sinks, it compresses and warms. This dries out the atmosphere. The high had been fairly strong up until about a week ago. If you notice in the water vapor pic, there is not as much orange as there was, especially in the MDR between 7.5N to 20N. Notice the moisture starting to come back over Africa, and the W. Caribbean. A sign the MJO should be on the way back.

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Sr. Chief,

    If one where to think a little here. Scenario … how many consecutive Tropical Storms/Hurricanes within a band of 15-23 degrees would it take to deplete the warm waters of enough of the fuel for the storms to become nothing more than low end tropical entities.

    By the way complacency seems to be settling in that things are a dud season and that can be very dangerous!

    Thank you again for insight and patience, because we are all going to go to sleep and wake up
    really surprised one morning soon

    Thoughts or an educated insiders view …. would be appreciated

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