TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 21, 2013…ISSUED 9:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

Another quiet morning in the tropics!

The area mentioned yesterday located in the GOMEX near the FL. Keys, has slowly moved WNW over the past 24 hours.  This feature has acquired vorticity at the mid level (500 mb).  It may be possible this is trying to work to the surface, however vorticity is not noted below 500 mb at the moment. Buoy data observations around that area were useless this morning, as 2 were inoperable, and one had no recent observation updates, thus surface pressure readings and trend were not obtainable.  Doppler Radar Loop imagery does indicate some rotation with this, however most likely picking up on mid level.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Looking at some parameters, the GOMEX is favorable for development, however I am not expecting anything to develop from this area, unless a surface reflection becomes apparent.

I will continue to monitor this for any changes.

The area I had been monitoring in the Caribbean, between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, has pretty much succumbed to wind shear, along with losing vorticity.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The area of disturbed weather in the CATL continues to be plagued by dry air, however it continues to pulse convection.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds are marginal at this time, however based on the 06Z wind shear forecast, upper level winds should become more conducive over the next 24 hours.  Albeit dry air is the main inhibitor, I will continue to monitor this area for any slow development over the next few days, as vorticity at the 850 mb level has become more pronounced, and concentrated over one area.

I will be monitoring a large MCS getting ready to exit the African Continent, for any signs of development as it enters the EATL.  Satellite loop imagery indicates in the last 2-3 frames, cyclonic rotation is starting to occur.  Depending on the forward speed of this entity, it may be able to take advantage of an upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the Cape Verde area during the next 2-3 days.

EATL / EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 66 HOURS (06Z RUN)

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 21, 2013…ISSUED 9:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Dellamom…we will take some of your rain in Colorado…fires are starting back up again. Well Storm…it looks like you have some systems…just no decent ingredients.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    When do you think all this dry air and wind shear will die off? I hope TX has a chance of a good rain maker this year. Notice I said rain maker not major hurricane….

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I am kinda glad nothing is spinning up just yet. With all the rain we have been getting … booming and pouring as I type … there’s no ground saturation margin left around here. I don’t think we could handle even a minimal hurricane right now without flooding in unusual areas. Go West, young storms, go West! The eyes of Texas are upon you! As far as any large and nasty storms, I would prefer they go visit the fishes. Thanks Storm.

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