Good day everyone!
I know…Aug. 19…WTH, right?
The tropics remain fairly neutral this morning as of the time of my analysis. INVEST 94L was designated over the weekend, however convective activity with the area has since ceased.
Based on analysis this morning of various satellite imagery channels and locations, I notice only 2 areas that seem to catch my attention today. I am watching a small area of disturbed weather located near the very southern portion of the Windward Islands.
Analysis of vorticity this morning indicates moderate vorticity at the 925 mb level, and at 850 mb, and has just started working its way to the 700 mb level.
The current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates an upper level anticyclone centered just over the coast of South America, with a westerly wind component affecting this area of disturbed weather, albeit shear and mid level shear are currently below 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level conditions could improve slightly during the next 24 hours, however they become marginal for development after that, as this area of weather moves toward the west.
I will monitor this for any slow development over the next 72 hours, and for any significant changes to forecast conditions ahead of this.
Elsewhere, the system that was INVEST 94L over the weekend, can be seen moving toward the WNW today, just south of the Cape Verde islands. Right now, I am not expecting any regeneration, as this motion should continue, which will continue to place it in drier air, and eventually cooler sst’s. I will monitor this however, for any significant changes.
The other area of disturbed weather I am interested in, is located at just about 5.0N…30.0W. This disturbed weather is moving toward the west, and is designated as a low at the southern end of a tropical wave. This area of weather is within the ITCZ, and is in response to the Monsoon Gyre, which is seen extending from Africa out to around 37W.
At the moment, easterly shear is a little too strong, however some weak to moderate lower convergence was present on the 12Z convergence map.
Based on the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds should become more conducive for development within the next 60-72 hours as this disturbance continues toward the west. Based on this, I will continue to monitor this feature for slow development during the next 72-96 hours.
Looking down the road, I am still looking for an upswing in activity within the next 5 days, and it’s possible we may see a “back weighted” season, in where we get the majority of activity in Sep. and Oct. 2 factors in my reasoning at the moment are the forecast of the NAO to head to neutral to negative, and the forecast by the more accurate dynamic modeling indicating a return of the MJO Multivariate Index to octants 8 and 1, which indicates upward vertical velocity in the Caribbean and Atlantic Basins. This is forecast to occur during the next 3-7 days.
MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX FORECAST
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)