UPDATE #2…9:15 A.M.: Just got some dynamic guidance in…which confirms my preference to the FIM Model track
UPDATE: As of the 8:00 A.M. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC in Miami, probabilities on both systems have been increased. You may access this by clicking on the Graphical TWO posted here.
Good morning everyone!
A little note: Kind of in the blind this morning, as the real time shear, and layer mean steering sites I utilize, for some reason, denied access. I have other folks who cannot get on as well. I’m going to place a phone call to CIMSS and see what is up today. Model Guidance data has not updated as of this synopsis as well, so my forecast track thinking will be based on what has been analyzed in Global model loops.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 92L, just over the past few hours, has become better organized. I suspect the NHC may upgrade the probability later today, however it remains at 30% (MEDIUM) at the moment.
Satellite loop imagery this morning indicates INVEST 92L continues to consolidate, and in the last few frames of the loop imagery, utilizing various channels, indicates a LLC is making its way underneath the heavy convection.
INVEST 92L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY / WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
The following is the estimated LLC location based on RAMSDIS information:
The wind shear information I do have available suggests that an upper level anticyclone is present over this disturbance, with shear values of less than 15 knots…and with the appearance of continued consolidation this morning, a Tropical Depression may be trying to develop.
Based on satellite imagery, the disturbance is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 12-18 hours, with more of a track toward the NW thereafter.
Global models are still divergent on a possible landfall, and given the lack of ATCF model guidance, given it’s consistency with track and intensity, I am going to have to stick with the FIM Experimental model on track and intensity. As of the latest run, it is projecting a 50-60 mph Tropical Storm making landfall in extreme SE Louisiana, with the maximum winds to the right of the center. Once again, this is most likely to shift again, until the system gets better established.
Based on the current GFS Wind Shear and Zonal shear forecast, I am calling for further slow strengthening over the next 48-60 hours, as the upper level anticyclone is forecast to be maintained. Thereafter, around the 72 hour mark in the forecast period, this system may encounter only marginal upper level support, which would tend to inhibit further strengthening prior to any landfall. The current run of the Wave Watch 3 model indicates near and to the right of the potential landfall area, significant wave heights may reach 12-15 ft at the coast.
Based on only Global Model solutions at this time, residents from the central LA coast, eastward to the western FL. Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system during the next 3-4 days.
Elsewhere, INVEST 93L has become better organized overnight. Satellite loop imagery does indicate good cyclonic turning in the wind field.
Based on information on the last dynamic guidance, and model loops this morning, 93L should continue to move toward the W today, and then be tugged briefly toward the WNW, before bending back to the west later on. Depending on how far north in latitude this moves, it will 1.) Begin to move over cooler sst’s in about 72 hours, and encounter drier air, or 2.) May remain south enough to miss the cooler water and dry air, and have an opportunity to become further organized, as it could encounter a narrow corridor of conducive upper level winds out to about 72-96 hours. Thereafter, upper level winds are forecast to become much less favorable.
INVEST 93L WIND DATA FROM RAMSDIS
I will continue to monitor this low for any significant changes over the next 48-72 hours.
Have a blessed day!