TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L / TROPICAL LOW INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 14, 2013…ISSUED 7:55 A.M. EDT…PHFC

UPDATE #2…9:15 A.M.: Just got some dynamic guidance in…which confirms my preference to the FIM Model track

12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE FOR 92L
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UPDATE:  As of the 8:00 A.M. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC in Miami, probabilities on both systems have been increased.  You may access this by clicking on the Graphical TWO posted here.

 

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Good morning everyone!

A little note:  Kind of in the blind this morning, as the real time shear, and layer mean steering sites I utilize, for some reason, denied access.  I have other folks who cannot get on as well.  I’m going to place a phone call to CIMSS and see what is up today.  Model Guidance data has not updated as of this synopsis as well, so my forecast track thinking will be based on what has been analyzed in Global model loops.

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 92L, just over the past few hours, has become better organized.  I suspect the NHC may upgrade the probability later today, however it remains at 30% (MEDIUM) at the moment.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicates INVEST 92L continues to consolidate, and in the last few frames of the loop imagery, utilizing various channels, indicates a LLC is making its way underneath the heavy convection.

INVEST 92L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY / WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The following is the estimated LLC location based on RAMSDIS information:

The wind shear information I do have available suggests that an upper level anticyclone is present over this disturbance, with shear values of less than 15 knots…and with the appearance of continued consolidation this morning, a Tropical Depression may be trying to develop.

GFS TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR
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Based on satellite imagery, the disturbance is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 12-18 hours, with more of a track toward the NW thereafter.

Global models are still divergent on a possible landfall, and given the lack of ATCF model guidance, given it’s consistency with track and intensity, I am going to have to stick with the FIM Experimental model on track and intensity.  As of the latest run, it is projecting a 50-60 mph Tropical Storm making landfall in extreme SE Louisiana, with the maximum winds to the right of the center.  Once again, this is most likely to shift again, until the system gets better established.

GFS
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FIM

Based on the current GFS Wind Shear and Zonal shear forecast, I am calling for further slow strengthening over the next 48-60 hours, as the upper level anticyclone is forecast to be maintained.  Thereafter, around the 72 hour mark in the forecast period, this system may encounter only marginal upper level support, which would tend to inhibit further strengthening prior to any landfall.  The current run of the Wave Watch 3 model indicates near and to the right of the potential landfall area, significant wave heights may reach 12-15 ft at the coast.

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL OUTPUT

Based on only Global Model solutions at this time, residents from the central LA coast, eastward to the western FL. Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system during the next 3-4 days.

Elsewhere, INVEST 93L has become better organized overnight.  Satellite loop imagery does indicate good cyclonic turning in the wind field.

Based on information on the last dynamic guidance, and model loops this morning, 93L should continue to move toward the W today, and then be tugged briefly toward the WNW, before bending back to the west later on.  Depending on how far north in latitude this moves, it will 1.) Begin to move over cooler sst’s in about 72 hours, and encounter drier air, or 2.) May remain south enough to miss the cooler water and dry air, and have an opportunity to become further organized, as it could encounter a narrow corridor of conducive upper level winds out to about 72-96 hours.  Thereafter, upper level winds are forecast to become much less favorable.

INVEST 93L EATL AND FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

INVEST 93L WIND DATA FROM RAMSDIS

I will continue to monitor this low for any significant changes over the next 48-72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L / TROPICAL LOW INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 14, 2013…ISSUED 7:55 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm! Be safe to all those in the path of the storm! The Texas protected shield is up again I see. Not saying this because I want a major storm..just saying it would be nice to get a decent size storm with some good rain.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. DKMac, I hope this turns into nothing more than a lot of rain for us and I hope your area doesn’t flood and I am glad that we aren’t all that close to August 29 because that is turning into a really bad time for us historically (Katrina, Isaac). It was interesting to see one of the local weathercasters showing us what we may expect and thinking “That’s what Storm has been saying for a l-o-o-o-ng time now.”

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yep…you pegged it again…NHC bumped 92L up to 50%.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I guess all our “Gulf Coast” friends have to be on their toes! Even you Storm, should it end up further East than now thought!

  5. DKMac says:

    Thanks Storm! I don’t like the looks of the FIM track! I guess it’s time to pull the gennie out of the shed, crank her up to test, and fill the gas cans 😦

  6. Beachgirl says:

    Thanks Storm! Eyes wide open here in Pensacola!

  7. BiloxiShrimp says:

    Thank you Storm. I will stay near the iPad for updates !!!!! Love you for all you do for everyone.
    Praying all is well for you and yours. Take care. God Bless.
    Gwen

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