Good evening everyone!
The area of disturbed weather located in the central Caribbean Sea continues to slowly organize this evening, and appears to have become slightly better consolidate since this morning. Based on satellite loop imagery, and the current ATCF FTP data, the disturbance was centered near Latitude 16.2N…Longitude 81.4W. Current estimated winds were near 25 mph, and estimated pressure was 1009 mb / 29.80 in. The NHC in Miami has upgraded the probability for this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours to 30% (MEDIUM).
Based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, valid 00Z tonight, I expect the slow westward motion to continue for about another 12 hours. Thereafter, forecast steering indicates the steering flow to become more of a flow to the WNW. By late Wed. / Early Thu., more of a NW track should begin to take place. Right now, model guidance as far as forecast track was not available at the time of analysis. However, based on the steering forecast, and track of the GFS, CMC, and FIM Experimental Model, we may either have a tropical depression, or mid grade tropical storm making landfall on the Gulf Coast between the AL/MS border, to the western FL. Panhandle area. Given the lack of a model guidance suite at the moment, I am still partial to the FIM Experimental model forecast solution track.
Strength is going to be questionable at best right now, until we get a closed LLC, and then see what lies ahead of the system. However, the GFS wind shear forecast has been fairly consistent on the last 3 runs, of showing pretty much favorable upper level conditions over the disturbance for the next 96 hours. Albeit about 6 hours late, the current wind shear map from CIMSS shows an upper level anticyclone almost directly over where the system is centered based on the ATCF information. This was forecast to occur by the GFS wind shear forecast maps. During the next 72 – 96 hours, the recent run of the shear maps indicate an upper level anticyclone to remain over, or in close proximity of the disturbance, or tropical storm should it attain that strength. Based on these forecast parameters, save any possible time over the Yucatan Peninsula, I am inclined to go with the FIM forecast of a 50-60 mph tropical storm. Again, this is a best guess estimate until this system organizes and closes off a LLC.
GFS WIND SHEAR / ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes, and should have an update in the morning.
Tropical Low 93L
Based on ATCF FTP information, this area is already a closed low of 1010 mb, or 29.83 in. Winds were estimated at 25 mph. This low is moving slowly westward, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 12-24 hours. A slight weakness in the ridge in the EATL is forecast, and this will allow 93L to pull more toward the WNW. Based on information from the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, and projected path of the the only dynamic model, this low could run into some drier air if it gets too far north in latitude, as well as cooler sst’s. Should any change in steering keep it below 15N Latitude, it would remain in fairly conducive conditions for further slow development. I will continue to monitor this low for any significant changes.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)