TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FRI. AUG. 09, 2013…ISSUED…12:05 P.M…EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The tropics for the most part remain quiet again as of analysis time.  Just a few features I wanted to touch on this morning, and we’ll start with the WATL and work our way eastward.

The upper level low I have been watching move toward the west, is now located in the Florida Straits, and is evident in water vapor loop imagery.  This will be enhancing thunderstorm activity across portions of the Florida peninsula today and tomorrow.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

WATER VAPOR LOOP

RGB LOOP IMAGERY

An area of disturbed weather has flared up this morning over the Isthmus of Panama, and is connected with the EPAC Monsoon trof.  Some circulation is evident on the Caribbean side, however steering suggests this will all end up moving toward the west.  I will monitor this area however, for any changes, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive over the next 12-18 hours.

A trof of lower pressure is just east of the Lesser Antilles, and will be monitored for any mischief down the road in a few days, as based on previous 500 mb anomaly departures, this may be a catalyst for possible tropical development in the SW Caribbean next week, as discussed in my previous forecasts.

06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP
USA_06Z

An extremely large negatively tilted tropical wave is in the CATL.  This has a very large circulation field with it, however, I am not expecting development from this, as it is located in an area of very dry air, and stability.  I will continue to monitor this though, for any changes to the atmosphere around it.

SATELLITE STILL WITH WAVE OUTLINED IN RED
avn-l

CATL SATELLITE LOOP


A strong MCS is currently entering the Tropical Atlantic MDR, just on the African west coast.  Based on analysis from the FIM model this morning, the 00Z run from yesterday evening indicates this is a closed low with a surface circulation already.

EATL AND EUMETSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPED (SECOND IMAGE)

FIM MODEL SHOWING CIRCULATION (near 20N;17W)

I will be monitoring this feature closely over the next few days, as it is currently located in an area where upper level winds are semi-conducive at the moment.  Based on the current run of the GFS wind shear and zonal shear forecast, upper level winds may become more conducive for tropical development within the next 12-24 hours, with these conditions prevailing over the area this should travel, for the next 3-4 days.

Analysis of the GFS shear forecasts shows that wind shear relaxes as an apparent change to the upper level wind pattern occurs.  Should this shear forecast verify, upper level conditions are forecast to become very favorable over the Atlantic MDR region on or right after Aug. 21st.

GFS WIND SHEAR AND ZONAL SHEAR MAPS

The GFS and CMC Global Models indicate a weak area of low pressure taking shape near the Cape Verde Islands in a few days, however he CMC drops it, and the GFS brings it to a depression overt he northern Leeward islands at the end of the period.

GFS OUTPUT
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical384

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FRI. AUG. 09, 2013…ISSUED…12:05 P.M…EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks as always Storm…sorry so late…driving my sisters U-Haul down to SAT over the weekend…landing back in KDEN at Sunday night…late…fun times. I guess the next move is mine…in IAH…gotta be close to needy parents…who heavily rely on your forecasts…as do I. God Bless!!

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

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