Good day everyone!
The tropics for the most part remain quiet again as of analysis time. Just a few features I wanted to touch on this morning, and we’ll start with the WATL and work our way eastward.
The upper level low I have been watching move toward the west, is now located in the Florida Straits, and is evident in water vapor loop imagery. This will be enhancing thunderstorm activity across portions of the Florida peninsula today and tomorrow.
WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
An area of disturbed weather has flared up this morning over the Isthmus of Panama, and is connected with the EPAC Monsoon trof. Some circulation is evident on the Caribbean side, however steering suggests this will all end up moving toward the west. I will monitor this area however, for any changes, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive over the next 12-18 hours.
A trof of lower pressure is just east of the Lesser Antilles, and will be monitored for any mischief down the road in a few days, as based on previous 500 mb anomaly departures, this may be a catalyst for possible tropical development in the SW Caribbean next week, as discussed in my previous forecasts.
An extremely large negatively tilted tropical wave is in the CATL. This has a very large circulation field with it, however, I am not expecting development from this, as it is located in an area of very dry air, and stability. I will continue to monitor this though, for any changes to the atmosphere around it.
CATL SATELLITE LOOP
A strong MCS is currently entering the Tropical Atlantic MDR, just on the African west coast. Based on analysis from the FIM model this morning, the 00Z run from yesterday evening indicates this is a closed low with a surface circulation already.
FIM MODEL SHOWING CIRCULATION (near 20N;17W)
I will be monitoring this feature closely over the next few days, as it is currently located in an area where upper level winds are semi-conducive at the moment. Based on the current run of the GFS wind shear and zonal shear forecast, upper level winds may become more conducive for tropical development within the next 12-24 hours, with these conditions prevailing over the area this should travel, for the next 3-4 days.
Analysis of the GFS shear forecasts shows that wind shear relaxes as an apparent change to the upper level wind pattern occurs. Should this shear forecast verify, upper level conditions are forecast to become very favorable over the Atlantic MDR region on or right after Aug. 21st.
The GFS and CMC Global Models indicate a weak area of low pressure taking shape near the Cape Verde Islands in a few days, however he CMC drops it, and the GFS brings it to a depression overt he northern Leeward islands at the end of the period.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)