TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WEDNESDAY, AUG. 07, 2013…ISSUED 2:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Still quiet as of time of my analysis.

The one area I’ve been watching move toward the Lesser Antilles, has been given a LOW (0%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Current satellite loop imagery indicates a large area of dry air out ahead of this low, and this will be the most likely inhibiting factor.  Albeit upper level winds are not exactly conducive, semi-ridging is over the low at the moment, and wind shear values are around 15-20 knots.  The current wind shear forecast indicates only marginal upper level conditions over the next 60 hours, with conditions becoming favorable in about 72-78 hours, north of Panama, as the current TUTT feature continues to move to the west. This will at least allow for ventilation of the Caribbean However, based on current and forecast steering layers maps, this low has the range of running into Nicaragua or Honduras in about 4-5 days.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

WATER VAPOR LOOP (SHOWING THE TUTT OVER THE BAHAMAS…DRY AIR IN ORANGE)

I will continue to monitor this low, for any significant changes to the surrounding environment.

Elsewhere, I am continuing to monitor showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave near the west coast of Africa.  Current indications from the wind shear forecast analysis tend to indicate upper level winds to become more conducive for development during the next 24 hours.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGERY

EUMETSAT LOOP IMAGERY

The GFS and CMC still show the possibility of a Cape Verde system developing in about 14 days, with the CMC dissipating it, while the GFS is a little more bullish.  I will be monitoring this for consistency, and further model agreement.

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical288

12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical384

The current ensemble forecast of the NAO keeps insisting for the NAO to become moderately positive for a good portion of the rest of August.  Should this occur, it would mean a strengthening of the Azores / Bermuda high, which would most likely preclude recovery of sst’s in the MDR region.  However, for the past 2 weeks, the ensemble forecast members have been flip flopping on this almost on a daily basis.

CURRENT NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST

SST ANOMALIES FROM AUGUST 06 2013

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WEDNESDAY, AUG. 07, 2013…ISSUED 2:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, good point Texas!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    I always think it is funny when the put a yellow circle and then say 0%. Why even circle it…..

    • dellamom says:

      I note that it is up to 10% today so they may have suspected things might improve. But i personally think they read Storm’s reports and don’t want to look totally out of the loop in case something does develop since he’s been watching that area on the off chance. 🙂

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