Good day everyone!
So far today, the tropics are fairly quiet.
An area of disturbed weather approaching 50W, near latitude 13N has been initialized as a 1011 mb low. I have been watching this general area between 52W and 50W for a couple of days. Recent satellite loop imagery indicates a small flaring of convection near the center this morning, however right now it is unknown if that will persist.
Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, the upper level anticyclone that was established over the area, has shifted toward the WSW, now allowing for around 15 knots of shear to affect the disturbance. Given this, conditions are marginal at best, and any development of this area will be very slow to occur, as it will encounter a little higher shear as it enters the Caribbean. However, based on the current steering layers forecast maps, and wind shear forecast, conditions appear to become more conducive in the extreme southern to SW Caribbean, just north of Panama, in about 4-5 days, about the time this feature could enter that location. Based on this, I will be watching this low over the next few days to see if any significant changes occur.
A surface trof of lower pressure is located over the Bahamas. It has been suggested by a few colleagues, that this may have to be watched for possible development in a few days. Some faint vorticity is noted at the 850 mb level, however vorticity closer to the surface is north of the area of cloudiness and showers. Right now, analysis indicates a lack of substantial vorticity, lack of divergence aloft and convergence at the surface, and wind shear values of around 35-40 knots.
Albeit the lowering of pressures in the Caribbean as seen on the current 500 mb anomaly departure forecast seems to be related to this trof, unless forecast conditions improve, I can’t buy development at the moment. At the forecast time of the most significant lowering of pressures, the GFS shear forecast indicates wind shear to still be a factor, which would correlate at 66-72 hours out in the forecast period. Conditions may improve in the GOMEX, however this would have a long way to go, without having a low level circulation of any kind at the moment, in addition to travelling over Cuba.
Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the wave over the west African coast for any development down the road.
The GFS and CMC Global Models are hinting at a possible development near the Cape Verde islands beginning the 3rd week of this month.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)