TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…TUE., AUG. 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT..PHFC

Good day everyone!

So far today, the tropics are fairly quiet.

An area of disturbed weather approaching 50W, near latitude 13N has been initialized as a 1011 mb low. I have been watching this general area between 52W and 50W for a couple of days.  Recent satellite loop imagery indicates a small flaring of convection near the center this morning, however right now it is unknown if that will persist.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, the upper level anticyclone that was established over the area, has shifted toward the WSW, now allowing for around 15 knots of shear to affect the disturbance.  Given this, conditions are marginal at best, and any development of this area will be very slow to occur, as it will encounter a little higher shear as it enters the Caribbean.  However, based on the current steering layers forecast maps, and wind shear forecast, conditions appear to become more conducive in the extreme southern to SW Caribbean, just north of Panama, in about 4-5 days, about the time this feature could enter that location.  Based on this, I will be watching this low over the next few days to see if any significant changes occur.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

A surface trof of lower pressure is located over the Bahamas.  It has been suggested by a few colleagues, that this may have to be watched for possible development in a few days.  Some faint vorticity is noted at the 850 mb level, however vorticity closer to the surface is north of the area of cloudiness and showers.  Right now, analysis indicates a lack of substantial vorticity, lack of divergence aloft and convergence at the surface, and wind shear values of around 35-40 knots.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Albeit the lowering of pressures in the Caribbean as seen on the current 500 mb anomaly departure forecast seems to be related to this trof, unless forecast conditions improve, I can’t buy development at the moment.  At the forecast time of the most significant lowering of pressures, the GFS shear forecast indicates wind shear to still be a factor, which would correlate at 66-72 hours out in the forecast period.  Conditions may improve in the GOMEX, however this would have a long way to go, without having a low level circulation of any kind at the moment, in addition to travelling over Cuba.

500 MB MEAN ANOMALY DEPARTURE MAP

GFS 72 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, I am still monitoring the wave over the west African coast for any development down the road.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

EUMETSAT LOOP IMAGERY

The GFS and CMC Global Models are hinting at a possible development near the Cape Verde islands beginning the 3rd week of this month.

GFS
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical228

CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropical228

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…TUE., AUG. 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. You gotta know that things have to explode soon…have a feeling you will be very busy!!

  3. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm. 🙂

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