Good day everyone!
So far, another quiet morning in the tropics.
Current satellite loop imagery indicates an area I was curious in yesterday evening, is still present within the ITCZ in an elongated area of lower pressure between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is noted to the NNW of that area, however it is in a stable environment right now. There is still some slight rotation being generated in my area of interest, albeit convection has diminished overnight. Regardless, it lies within an area that is currently being ventilated by the large TUTT noted over the Caribbean.
Analysis of the NCEP Ensemble and Multi Model Ensembles from the NCEP/EMC site, and 500 mb anomaly departures from the NCEP Ensemble Normal Anomaly site indicate to me, that the extreme SW Caribbean may have to be monitored for possible development over the next 96-120 hours, as the 500 mb anomalies indicate a significant lowering of pressures, and the NCEP/EMC site indicates a strong probability (90-100%) of development in the area on the 06Z run, from 00-120 hours out. This kind of leads me to believe , that the area in the CATL I’m monitoring, COULD possibly be a catalyst for possible development in that area.
The CMC does indicate a closed low down there around that time, and albeit not shown in the GFS at the moment, the indications are present based on the information provided. Is this a definite development? No…but the area will have to be monitored given the information provided.
Elsewhere, the GFS indicates from the 06Z run, a closed low developing near the Cape Verde islands in about 8-10 days. This could be a good possibility, as we are getting closer toward the ramp up time of the season, and upper level winds become a bit more conducive in or around that time frame. However, based on analysis of the 500 mb portion of the 1000-500 mb thickness map shown, this particular low may begin an immediate re-curve out to sea, as it will want to head for the break in the subtropical ridge as circled.
Other than that, I still don’t see a significant increase in activity until after the 21st of this month. We still have pretty much stable conditions throughout the MDR as noted by dry air covering a large area, courtesy of the current strength of the Azores Bermuda high being fairly strong again right now, vice the SAL. I will however be monitoring a tropical wave that is just exiting the African continent today, for any signs of development down the road.
We still have some favorable indicators of increased activity coming up…one is TCHP (Comparison to 2008), and a still negative IOD for starters.
IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole)
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)