TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MONDAY, AUG. 05, 2013…ISSUED 10:55 A.M. EDT..PHFC

Good day everyone!

So far, another quiet morning in the tropics.

Current satellite loop imagery indicates an area I was curious in yesterday evening, is still present within the ITCZ in an elongated area of lower pressure between 35W and 45W.  A tropical wave is noted to the NNW of that area, however it is in a stable environment right now.  There is still some slight rotation being generated in my area of interest, albeit convection has diminished overnight.  Regardless, it lies within an area that is currently being ventilated by the large TUTT noted over the Caribbean.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

TUTT FEATURE
wg8shr

Analysis of the NCEP Ensemble and Multi  Model Ensembles from the NCEP/EMC site, and 500 mb anomaly departures from the NCEP Ensemble Normal Anomaly site indicate to me, that the extreme SW Caribbean may have to be monitored for possible development over the next 96-120 hours, as the 500 mb anomalies indicate a significant lowering of pressures, and the NCEP/EMC site indicates a strong probability (90-100%) of development in the area on the 06Z run, from 00-120 hours out.  This kind of leads me to believe , that the area in the CATL I’m monitoring, COULD possibly be a catalyst for possible development in that area.

06Z NCEP EMC MODEL DATA

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

The CMC does indicate a closed low down there around that time, and albeit not shown in the GFS at the moment, the indications are present based on the information provided.  Is this a definite development?  No…but the area will have to be monitored given the information provided.

Elsewhere, the GFS indicates from the 06Z run, a closed low developing near the Cape Verde islands in about 8-10 days.  This could be a good possibility, as we are getting closer toward the ramp up time of the season, and upper level winds become a bit more conducive in or around that time frame.  However, based on analysis of the 500 mb portion of the 1000-500 mb thickness map shown, this particular low may begin an immediate re-curve out to sea, as it will want to head for the break in the subtropical ridge as circled.

GFS 360 HOURS
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical360

Other than that, I still don’t see a significant increase in activity until after the 21st of this month.  We still have pretty much stable conditions throughout the MDR as noted by dry air covering a large area, courtesy of the current strength of the Azores Bermuda high being fairly strong again right now, vice the SAL.  I will however be monitoring a tropical wave that is just exiting the African continent today, for any signs of development down the road.

SAL INFORMATION

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

We still have some favorable indicators of increased activity coming up…one is TCHP (Comparison to 2008), and a still negative IOD for starters.

TCHP 2013

TCHP 2008

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole)

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MONDAY, AUG. 05, 2013…ISSUED 10:55 A.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Boy…the EPAC is fired up…makes you wonder how long before the Atlantic follows suit.

  2. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm. 🙂

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, glad it’s quiet–for now!–Hope you got my letter. LT

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