TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SAT. AUG. 03, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT..PHFC

Good day all!

The area of low pressure I had been monitoring off of Melbourne FL., has regenerated and is classified as Tropical Depression Dorian.  As of the 5:00 a.m. advisory, the following was available from the NHC.

5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 3
Location: 28.7°N 79.2°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC DORIAN TRACKING MAP
DORIAN 120 FCST

Satellite loop imagery indicates the LLC has become decoupled from the deep convection, which is located south of the LLC.

DORIAN FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

This has occurred due to a slight increase of wind shear, which appears to be most significant at just above the 500 mb level, as mid shear values are fairly low to non existent, albeit this could be an erroneous reading, given the fact the  500 mb vorticity is well displaced from the 850 mb vorticity.

Based on the forecast wind shear pattern from the GFS shear maps, wind shear is forecast to increase significantly in about 12 hours.  Based on this, I am not looking for any strengthening of the depression.  In fact, albeit not my call, I would not even be issuing tropical cyclone advisories on this, as it has since lost the criteria classified for a tropical cyclone.

This system is currently moving slowly to the NE, and I expect to motion to continue for the next 24-36 hours. Based on forecast steering, and current satellite motion and position, I concur with the 06Z Dynamic Model guidance TVCC/TVCN track, however I am to the left, as Dorian is currently left of the forecast track positions.

06Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
06zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif.DORIAN

I will continue to monitor Dorian on and off this weekend, but am not expecting anything significant to occur with him.

Elsewhere, albeit the GFS 06Z run has dropped cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean in about 8-10 days, I will be monitoring the area for possible development, based on a significant lowering of pressures as seen in the NCEP 500 mb anomaly departure maps, and the probability shown in the NCEP Ensemble guidance.

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ENSEMBLE

I am not as concerned at the moment about the EATL wave I was tracking the other day, as the low associated with this appears to be laden with dry air and appears fairly stable. Convection is confined to the ITCZ in the CATL.

SAL TRUE COLOR VIEW

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SAT. AUG. 03, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…Dorian should have been named Garfield…cat has nine lives. Thanks for the reply yesterday…will warn gang worst is most likely yet to come from Mid-August well into September. Thank God you’re here Senior Chief!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for keeping on top of this. I was surprised that the NHC reclassified Dorian’s remains as 91L in the first place. They should have just kept it as a remnant low, and then up-grade it to a depression if it strengthened again(which it did).

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s