Good evening all!
INVEST 91L continue to become slowly better organized over the course of the day. The NHC has increased the probability of 91L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, to 50%
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Satellite loop imagery and Doppler radar loop imagery indicates thunderstorm activity has become better organized. Current satellite loop imagery indicates 91L may be consolidating a little better, and becoming more symmetric in the last few frames of the loop imagery.
The current wind shear map from CIMSS shows shear has just upped to around 15 knots in the deep layer mean, however mid level shear is around 10 knots.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
Based on the latest run of the GFS wind shear forecast maps, 91L has about 16-18 hours of somewhat favorable conditions left, before wind shear picks up sometime early tomorrow afternoon.
Based on 91L being positioned in the Gulfstream, and the shear forecast, INVEST 91L should continue to organize slowly overnight, and could become a tropical depression before the increase in wind shear occurs.
INVEST 91L is currently stationary due to a small area of weak steering currents at the moment. Based upon analysis of the steering layers forecast maps, a motion toward the north should begin tomorrow, with a turn more to the NE in about 24-30 hours. Based on this, I agree with the 00Z Dynamic Model Guidance, TVCN / TVCC track. It is uncertain at the moment whether baroclinic forcing from the frontal trof 91L is supposed to merge with in a couple days, will allow for this to become a hybrid type system as it passes close to the OBX.
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes, and will have updates at various times during this weekend, and will visit the possibility of a possible subtropical entity in a couple days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)