INVEST 91L EVENING UPDATE…FRIDAY, AUG. 02, 2013…ISSUED 9:55 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening all!

INVEST 91L continue to become slowly better organized over the course of the day.  The NHC has increased the probability of 91L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, to 50%

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery and Doppler radar loop imagery indicates thunderstorm activity has become better organized.  Current satellite loop imagery indicates 91L may be consolidating a little better, and becoming more symmetric in the last few frames of the loop imagery.

INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

The current wind shear map from CIMSS shows shear has just upped to around 15 knots in the deep layer mean, however mid level shear is around 10 knots.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

Based on the latest run of the GFS wind shear forecast maps, 91L has about 16-18 hours of somewhat favorable conditions left, before wind shear picks up sometime early tomorrow afternoon.

Based on 91L being positioned in the Gulfstream, and the shear forecast, INVEST 91L should continue to organize slowly overnight, and could become a tropical depression before the increase in wind shear occurs.

INVEST 91L is currently stationary due to a small area of weak steering currents at the moment.  Based upon analysis of the steering layers forecast maps, a motion toward the north should begin tomorrow, with a turn more to the NE in about 24-30 hours.  Based on this, I agree with the 00Z Dynamic Model Guidance, TVCN / TVCC track.  It is uncertain at the moment whether baroclinic forcing from the frontal trof 91L is supposed to merge with in a couple days, will allow for this to become a hybrid type system as it passes close to the OBX.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
00zatcfearlyinvest1best.DORIAN

I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes, and will have updates at various times during this weekend, and will visit the possibility of a possible subtropical entity in a couple days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to INVEST 91L EVENING UPDATE…FRIDAY, AUG. 02, 2013…ISSUED 9:55 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning Storm,

    I guess it ain’t dead until its dead …. and even then things can come back from the dead and can arise. You know your stuff! We should send you to Congress, or Head of NOAA.

    Congratulations!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like models keep 91L off WATL coast…any chance things shift Westward a little?? This would put CHS in the path of what is looking like a very Whackadoo system. With what you were talking about yesterday…and reinterring today…wimps can be made hero’s…despite adverse conditions.. Oh well…little do I know…that’s why I rely on you Senior Chief…should be somewhat of a “Cinderella Season”…should things keep going the way they are?? Just me.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s