DORIAN/91L REMNANT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 30, 2013…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Despite taking in a large amount of dry air yesterday evening, the remnant of Dorian is firing convection once again, albeit more of a mid level feature.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC, the probability of this remnant becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours has been lowered to LOW (20%).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

I have to concur with the NHC at the moment.

One of the big factors inhibiting any regeneration is the upper level trof (trough) to the west of the remnant.  This feature had been forecast to lift toward the WNW and begin to weaken about 36 hours ago, which based on previous shear forecast maps, should have provided a more conducive environment for regeneration.  Current satellite loop imagery may indicate this upper feature is in fact beginning to move toward the west, away from the area of convection associated with the remnant.  If this does occur, conditions MAY become a little more conducive over the next 48-72 hours.

CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

CARIBBEAN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

DORIAN REMNANT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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Based on careful analysis of various satellite loop imagery channels, current wind shear map from CIMSS, and most recent vorticity maps, lower level vorticity is displaced to the WSW of the mid level convection, due to around 15-20 knots of mid level wind shear.

CIMSS MID LEVEL SHEAR MAP

CIMSS 850 MB / 500 MB VORTICITY

Analysis of the current wind shear forecast products from the GFS (Global Forecasting System) model, should the remnant survive the next 48-60 hours and enter the southern GOMEX, wind shear values could relax enough for a marginally conducive environment, and IF anything is left of this remnant, will have to be monitored.

GFS WIND SHEAR / ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST 60 HOURS

Analysis this morning of the current mean steering layer indicates the remnant should move toward the W or on a track just north of due west today, and based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect this general motion to continue for the next 48 hours.  Based on a forecast weakness in the ridge, a more northward turn could occur as shown in the 06Z Dynamic Model Guidance, albeit guidance has become pretty sparse.

CURRENT MEAN STEERING

700-850 MB

500-850 MB

06Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
06zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif.DORIAN

I will continue to monitor the area of convection for the next few days, for any significant changes, as I never discount a remnant as long as convective pulses keep occurring.

Elsewhere, I will continue to monitor a small area of convection just south of the Cape Verde islands as it moves toward the west.  Currently, conditions are not favorable for development from this area.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to DORIAN/91L REMNANT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 30, 2013…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Looking at Dorian’s remains tonight, “It’s Over”!

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    With all the things that have to come together for a Hurricane to form , it is amazing that they can even develop. When do you think Hurricane season will pick up? Thanks Storm!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…gotta give Dorian an A for effort!!

  4. Karen says:

    Thanks for keeping me informed Storm! A blesssed day to you as well.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I guess for Dorian, as Yogi said, “It ain’t over till it’s over”!

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