Although it looks busy out there right now, the tropics are pretty much quiet.
The area of disturbed weather in the GOMEX is associated with an upper level low, and will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms as the upper level is under a diffluent flow, which is enhancing shower activity. There is currently no signs of a surface reflection, and albeit wind shear will wax and wane over the next 36-48 hours, I do not believe the environment will favor any surface development.
Elsewhere, an upper level low is still east and south of the Florida Peninsula, moving toward the west. This should continue to move toward the west, and over the GOMEX over the next 72-96 hours, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity in its path.
The remainder of the Atlantic basin is pretty much void of any real activity to speak of.
The GFS 12Z run still indicates the development of a Tropical Cyclone beginning around the 24th-25th of this month. The intensity waxes and wanes during the trek, however begins to re-intensify near Hispaniola.
The Zonal Shear forecast from the GFS indicates the development of an upper level anticyclone over the entity at that time. Before I totally rule this out, I am going to monitor subsequent runs over the next 4-5 days for consistency.
Based on the shear forecast, and MJO forecast, I wouldn’t look for any significant development to take place until the end of this month, to the beginning of Aug.
MJO OLR FORECAST
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)