TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX / CARIBBEAN / ATLANTIC BASINS…JULY 16, 2013…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Greetings everyone.

Although it looks busy out there right now, the tropics are pretty much quiet.

The area of disturbed weather in the GOMEX is associated with an upper level low, and will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms as the upper level is under a diffluent flow, which is enhancing shower activity.  There is currently no signs of  a surface reflection, and albeit wind shear will wax and wane over the next 36-48 hours, I do not believe the environment will favor any surface development.

GOMEX / WESTERN ATLANTIC / CENTRAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, an upper level low is still east and south of the Florida Peninsula, moving toward the west.  This should continue to move toward the west, and over the GOMEX over the next 72-96 hours, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity in its path.

The remainder of the Atlantic basin is pretty much void of any real activity to speak of.

The GFS 12Z run still indicates the development of a Tropical Cyclone beginning around the 24th-25th of this month.  The intensity waxes and wanes during the trek, however begins to re-intensify near Hispaniola.

GFS 12Z RUN
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical372

The Zonal Shear forecast from the GFS indicates the development of an upper level anticyclone over the entity at that time.  Before I totally rule this out, I am going to monitor subsequent runs over the next 4-5 days for consistency.

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

Based on the shear forecast, and MJO forecast, I wouldn’t look for any significant development to take place until the end of this month, to the beginning of Aug.

MJO OLR FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX / CARIBBEAN / ATLANTIC BASINS…JULY 16, 2013…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm…. seems really quiet out there. Still thinking this is going to be a busy season?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m with Dellamom…Texas is baking. We got some good rain around DEN for once…finally getting our monsoonal flow. Some areas East of DEN picked up 8 inches in a few hours.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I am glad nothing’s developing out there, but fear that the constant, daily, heavy rain in my area will have the ground so saturated and the already-high rivers so much higher by the time something does come this way, the water will not have anywhere to go. We don’t have any trees that could fall on the house either from wind or from sodden root systems, and I don’t think my house is in any danger of flooding; but surrounding areas and most of the Southshore would be. I really, really wish someone could figure out how to get some of our rainwater and the northern snow melt to Central Texas!

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