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Good day everyone!
The tropics remain quiet as of analysis time.
There are various ULL’s scattered around, but nothing with a surface reflection.
There is an area currently in the BOC, trying to acquire a surface feature, however I am not looking for any development, based on the current and forecast wind shear products.
Based on the current run of the GFS Zonal Shear forecast, the GOMEX and especially the Caribbean should be shut down for the next 2 weeks. After researching a few things briefly this morning, it is not all that unusual in regards to lack of activity. We are still in the period climatologically of little activity for the tropics.
Another wave is getting ready to exit the African coast, and I will monitor its progress, albeit I am not looking for development from this right now.
I am awaiting completion of the 12Z GFS run to see if it picks up on the feature shown in the 06Z run. The 06Z run indicates in about 10 days, a wave exiting Africa, with a Tropical Storm developing just off the south coast of Puerto Rico by July 31st. I cannot rule this out as of yet, until I can analyze subsequent runs of the Global Models, in particular the GFS due to its almost extremely accurate tropical cyclogenesis forecasting thus far. This surface feature has, or should have upper air support based on the Zonal Shear forecast from the GFS, albeit this can change rather quickly. However, chances of this development occurring, are statistically better as we enter August.
Not too much change as far as the state of the tropics. The MDR appears to be slowly warming once more, and this trend could continue, if the NAO Ensemble forecast is correct.
NAO ENSEMBLE FORECAST
The current state of the MJO as revealed by the MJO Multivariate Index shows a very weak, to non existent signal in Octant 4.
Given all the variables I have mentioned, it does seem plausible not to have another “true” tropical development until months end, or beginning of August (kinda supported by the GFS MJO forecast).
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)