TROPICAL DISTURBANCE…NORTHERN BAHAMAS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 12, 2013..ISSUED 2:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good Friday afternoon everyone!

Talk about fickle!  INVEST 96L was deleted from file, however an area of disturbed weather remains over the Bahamas, portions of Cuba, and near the eastern Florida Peninsula.  The NHC this morning has reduced the probability of this area regenerating into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, to LOW (10%).

(NOTE:  As of the drafting of this synopsis, the NHC upgraded the probability for development to 20%)

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Current satellite loop imagery shows a pretty disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms at the moment, however I am a little concerned with the recent convective flareup.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



The current near real time wind shear map from CIMSS indicates the area to still be under 15-20 knots of deep layer shear, however shear to the north has been decreasing over the past 24 hours.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP AND TENDENCY

Because of the shear, this disturbance is still tilted to the SE, and remains not vertically stacked.

The disturbed weather is moving slowly toward the north, and I expect this general forward motion to continue during the next 24-36 hours, before a shift in the steering flow changes toward the NNW, which could bring some gusty, rainy weather to the SEUS from GA to NC in 2-3 days.

Albeit the NHC has only designated a 10% probability, and chances do not appear too good at this time, the Zonal Shear Forecast indicates Zonal Shear values to drop to zero (Zero Line = Purple Contour) over where this disturbance may be, in the next 18-24 hours, to light NE winds within the possible path on the NNW turn.  Although wind shear is prevailing at the moment, this disturbance has one somewhat positive factor influencing it at the moment..one will note in satellite loop imagery, and upper level low to the east of the Bahamas.  This feature is actually aiding in producing an upper outflow channel or jet, if you will, to the north of the disturbance.  This may be a factor in why this area is still trying to cling to life.

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST 18-24 HOURS (FROM SYNOPSIS POSTING TIME)

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on my analysis of all these factors, although it appears the window of opportunity has closed on this, I will continue to monitor this area during the next 48-72 hours for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, the Tropical Wave in the EATL I have been monitoring seems to have a single circulation now closer to the CATL.  Convective activity has decreased greatly with this, however I will continue to monitor this, and the weather getting ready to exit the African Continent, not that development is imminent, but given the fact the west African Monsoon Circulation seems to be pretty much intact this season, the EATL and CATL bear watching, regardless.  Remember Dr. Klotzbach’s previous statement.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The African Wave Train seems to be a little more active, and one area that may interest me down the road, is the large area of cyclonic turning over the African continent in the circled area.

EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

I will be off for the weekend, and will post only if anything becomes out of the ordinary.

Have a great weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE…NORTHERN BAHAMAS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 12, 2013..ISSUED 2:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm.

  2. dellamom says:

    Storm, do I remember you saying that the systems coming off the African continent this year are exiting further south than they have been the past few years, citing water temps and wetter overland conditons maybe, and that this would make those systems head more to the Lower Atlantic/Gulf States area than in the past few years where they were skirting up the East Coast?

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Chantal…will you please make up your mind please. I’m driving friends in CHS crazy!! LOL

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