TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CHANTAL REMNANT / EATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 11, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon!

As we all know by now, Chantal had degraded into an open wave, and is now only an area of disturbed weather over and north of Cuba, and nice blowup of convection associated with the northern axis of a tropical wave.

The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) chance of any regeneration of Chantal during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

CURRENT FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Satellite loop imagery indicates the remnants to are very ragged at the moment.  A small burst of convection was noted over a portion of the Bahamas.  At the moment, the remnant is moving in a general NW to NNW motion, and is currently under 15-20 knots of wind shear.  This is causing what’s left not to become vertically stacked, as is evident in the vorticity maps at 850 mb and 500 mb, respectively.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

850 MB / 500 MB VORTICITY MAPS

The remnant of Chantal will soon  enter an area of lighter upper level winds, however this may not have an appreciable effect on the system.

Based on current and forecast steering however, the remnant would encounter lesser shear values near the FL. Peninsula in about 36 hours, where the zonal shear forecast indicates little to no zonal shear, with these more conducive conditions remaining out to 72 hours from the 06Z initialization of the forecast map.

Based on these factors, I am going to monitor these remnants for possible regeneration during the next 72 hours, albeit chances may be slim for this occurring, it cannot be ruled out of the realm of possibilities.

Elsewhere, the Tropical Wave I have been watching in the EATL has diminished in convective activity, and appears somewhat elongated.  However, the cyclonic curvature signature appears to have become more prominent over the past few hours. Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS for the EATL, this wave is still under favorable upper level winds, with a small upper level anticyclone noted centered near 14.0N;30.0W.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR

Vorticity was noted at the 850 mb level.

EATL 850 MB VORTICITY

I will continue to monitor this area of disturbed weather for further slow signs of organization, as the shear forecast indicates zero to light easterly zonal shear over the area, for the next 4-5 days.

Other than these 2 areas at the moment, based on the current CPC GFS MJO forecast, I am not looking for anything “significant” in the EATL to begin until the last week in this month.

CPC GFS MJO FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CHANTAL REMNANT / EATL DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 11, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. grgirl138 says:

    Hi! Thanks so much for the good work you do. I am currently out of the hurricane zone, though, and am wondering if you could remove me from your subscribers list. Thanks! Linda Carrington Grand Rapids, MI

  2. Monty says:

    The models have scraping the Eastern Florida Coastline…NHC put ibck up to 30%…agreeing with you on the relaxed shear I suppose.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. —That’s quite a “blow-up” of convection between Cuba and Jamaica! Wouldn’t like to under that in a small boat!

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