TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL..EVENING SYNOPSIS…JULY 09, 2013…ISSUED 7:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening everyone!

After some continued slow strengthening today, Tropical Storm Chantal now has maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH.

As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Chantal:

5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 9
Location: 15.2°N 63.7°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 65 mph

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HURREVAC TRACKING CHARTS
CHANTAL TRACKING

CHANTAL TRACKING ERROR

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Satellite imagery this evening indicates Chantal has become fairly ragged, and this can be attributed to NWLY shear of about 15-20 knots at the moment.  This is pretty much verified, as the storm is tilted toward the SE based on vorticity maps.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

VORTICITY MAPS AT 850 MB, 700 MB, AND 500 MB

A combination of the wind shear, and Chantal’s fast forward speed will continue to pose a battle for the system as it continues to head toward Hispaniola.

Based on current motion in satellite imagery, and current steering, the forecast track for Chantal has initially shifted very slightly westward, and may put her crossing of Hispaniola, slightly south of the center of the Island.

However, based on the current run of the 12Z forecast steering layers maps (Valid 00Z tonight), even though I pretty much concur with the official forecast track, I prefer the track shape from the Bahamas, to point of landfall, of that between the TVCC / TVCN and AVNI Dynamic Model Guidance.  Of course as fluctuations in storm strength, and steering occur, subtle changes to track will most likely occur between now and by the time the system reaches the Bahamas.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
18zatcfearlyinvest2best

Based on this, and if nothing changes much, Tropical Storm Watches could go up for the Florida Peninsula, up to just north of the SC border as early as Fri. morning.

Based on the current wind shear product, and the last update of the Zonal Shear forecast,  Chantal may only strengthen slightly more, and become a 70 mph Tropical Storm prior to crossing the Hispaniola coastline.  Once she traverses Hispaniola, I do expect some disruption of the system, however with her fast forward speed, and small COC, she may not too much trouble recovering as she enters the Bahamas, especially with a slow down in forward motion.  As steering becomes weak and she  slows int he Bahamas, timing will depend on how strong she may become.  Based on the Zonal Shear, the upper level environment becomes the most conducive prior to a second landfall in the SEUS.  Based on the brief time frame, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, albeit any further slowing just prior to landfall, or improvement of the upper level pattern, I would not rule out a 60 mph storm.

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

I will continue to monitor Chantal for any significant changes, and will have another update in the morning.

Elsewhere, the GFS has dropped the solution of developing Dorian next week.  However, I will continue to monitor the EATL for any development during  next week.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL..EVENING SYNOPSIS…JULY 09, 2013…ISSUED 7:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, you called it!.. that Chantal would have a hard time , with that wind sheer and rapid forward movement. Looks very bad this morning, but I see convection has “flared-up” again a little bit this morning. Seems to be moving further West than originally thought–I guess because it is so weak. Do you think if it makes it up into the Eastern Gomex, it could regenerate?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks as always Storm. CHS might be under the “small” gun…curious how much further West the models shift.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s