Good evening everyone!
The NHC in Miami has increased the probability of Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours to HIGH (70%).
Analysis of various channels of satellite loop imagery this afternoon, and currently this evening, indicate thunderstorm activity has become better organized . Some very slight banding features are beginning to appear in satellite imagery as well.
Based on the most recent ATCF FTP data, the center was estimated to be near Latitude 9.8N…Longitude 43.8W. The disturbance is moving toward the W at 25 mph. Maximum sustained wind was estimated at 40 mph, and central pressure estimated to be 1008 mb or 29.77 in.
In my honest opinion, careful analysis of RGB and SWIR satellite loops seem to indicate the center may be closer to 8.0N
The current near real time wind shear map from CIMSS indicates a very small upper level anticyclone over INVEST 95L at the moment. However, given the forward speed of 95L, and weak upper level anticyclone, there is very limited divergence aloft, and little to no convergence at the surface where the reported center is located. The upper level wind map also indicates lack of any real effective outflow channel at the moment.
The current wind shear forecast map (zonal) from the GFS indicates the current shear values should drop enough in the forecast track for INVEST 95L to possible become Tropical Storm Chantal within the next 36 hours. However, as this system approaches the Lesser Antilles, and enters the Caribbean Sea, wind shear is forecast to increase, and should be non conducive for further development from that point onward. There may be a very, very short moment in the Caribbean, where shear values relax enough to maintain a decent LLC if this system continues to develop. Once out of the Caribbean, Zonal shear values briefly become somewhat favorable, and what ever may be left of this system may have to be monitored. Again, if I do not see any changes to more favorable upper level conditions in a few days, if this does develop…it my have a short life time.
Analysis of current and the updated steering layers forecast maps, valid for 00Z 08 JUL, provides me reason to believe this system will continue to the WNW in the Caribbean, and continue to cross over Hispaniola, then toward the Bahamas. Given this is out most likely to 96 hours or so, and some uncertainty as to where the LLC may be developing, my best forecast indicates this to be an entity for SE FL. to possibly portions of SC/NC within the next 5 days or so…unless there is a change in the forecast steering pattern. At the moment, I prefer the TVCN / TVCC forecast track in the 00Z Dynamic Model Guidance suite.
Residents of the Lesser Antilles should monitor this system in case there are any significant changes in the forecast pattern, and should be aware that a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be posted late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
I will have another full update in the a.m.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)