SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 07, 2013…ISSUED 9:25 P.M. EDT..PHFC

Good evening everyone!

The NHC in Miami has increased the probability of Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours to HIGH (70%).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of various channels of satellite loop imagery this afternoon, and currently this evening, indicate thunderstorm activity has become better organized .  Some very slight banding features are beginning to appear in satellite imagery as well.

INVEST 95L FLOATER SATELLITE AVN LOOP

Based on the most recent ATCF FTP data, the center was estimated to be near Latitude 9.8N…Longitude 43.8W.  The disturbance is moving toward the W at 25 mph.  Maximum sustained wind was estimated at 40 mph, and central pressure estimated to be 1008 mb or 29.77 in.

In my honest opinion, careful analysis of RGB and SWIR satellite loops seem to indicate the center may be closer to 8.0N

95L RGB SATELLITE LOOP

95L SHORTWAVE IR2 LOOP

The current near real time wind shear map from CIMSS indicates a very small upper level anticyclone over INVEST 95L at the moment. However, given the forward speed of 95L, and weak upper level anticyclone, there is very limited divergence aloft, and little to no convergence at the surface where the reported center is located.  The upper level wind map also indicates lack of any real effective outflow channel at the moment.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE

UPPER LEVEL WINDS

The current wind shear forecast map (zonal) from the GFS indicates the current shear values should drop enough in the forecast track for INVEST 95L to possible become Tropical Storm Chantal within the next 36 hours.  However, as this system approaches the Lesser Antilles, and enters the Caribbean Sea, wind shear is forecast to increase, and should be non conducive for further development from that point onward.  There may be a very, very short moment in the Caribbean, where shear values relax enough to maintain a decent LLC if this system continues to develop.  Once out of the Caribbean, Zonal shear values briefly become somewhat favorable, and what ever may be left of this system may have to be monitored.  Again, if I do not see any changes to more favorable upper level conditions in a few days, if this does develop…it my have a short life time.

Analysis of current and the updated steering layers forecast maps, valid for 00Z 08 JUL, provides me reason to believe this system will continue to the WNW in the Caribbean, and continue to cross over Hispaniola, then toward the Bahamas.  Given this is out most likely to 96 hours or so, and some uncertainty as to where the LLC may be developing, my best forecast indicates this to be an entity for SE FL. to possibly portions of SC/NC within the next 5 days or so…unless there is a change in the forecast steering pattern.  At the moment, I prefer the TVCN / TVCC forecast track in the 00Z Dynamic Model Guidance suite.

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
00zatcfearlyinvest2best

Residents of the Lesser Antilles should monitor this system in case there are any significant changes in the forecast pattern, and should be aware that a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be posted late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

I will have another full update in the a.m.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 07, 2013…ISSUED 9:25 P.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Well, at 11pm Sunday, we have Tropical Storm Chantal–9.8N and 47.2W. Still think like Storm says, once it gets into the Caribbean Sea, upper air winds will knock it down.

  2. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. Hope it goes over Hispaniola quickly. Appreciate the Sunday time. 🙂

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope you are right about the upper level winds being over all pretty non-conducive for much development . But I realize there is some possibility of it developing.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm!! Passing this on to the Bosses daughter in CHS…looking like a long season Senior Chief…thanks so much for your dedication!!!!!!!

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