SPECIAL EDITION: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L / TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L EATL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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UPDATE…4:25 P.M. EDT…JULY 06, 2013:  18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 95L
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Good day everyone!

I usually take the weekend off, so this will be considered a Special Edition.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

INVEST 94L still persists in the GOMEX today.  Based on satellite imagery, there has been no organization of this area.  In fact, I really couldn’t discern a closed LLC in RGB and VIS satellite loop imagery.

INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The disturbance is moving slowly N to NNW, and I really expect no change in motion over the next 48-72 hours.  This should bring the “center” ashore around the S. Texas, to S. Central Texas coast, with rain and gusts affecting TX, and likely some western portions of LA.

Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, shear values are still running 20-25 knots over 94L.  The current run of the GFS shear forecast map indicates shear may relax briefly, however the shear is forecast to increase thereafter.  I do not honestly believe at the moment, this will have the chance to become really organized.  It may take a shot at it when the shear relaxes, however in my opinion, I feel this will continue to struggle to organize until coming ashore.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

GFS 72 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, enter Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L…EATL

INVEST 95L was designated earlier this morning.  This is the area I mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, near the Cape Verde Islands.  As of the 12Z (8:00 A.M.) ATCF FTP position, the disturbance was located near 7.8N…32.6W.  This disturbance is moving to the west at around 15-20 mph.  Maximum sustained wind was 30 mph.  Pressure was estimated to be 1009 mb / 29.80 in.

Analysis of satellite loop images this morning indicate this disturbance continues to become slowly better organized.

INVEST 95L EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Currently, the low is in an area of semi favorable upper level winds with minimal upper divergence.  The current Wind Shear, and Zonal Shear forecast indicate upper level winds may become more conducive through the next 72 hours.  Based on this premise, I believe further slow organization should occur, and cannot rule out the probability of 95L becoming a Tropical Depression within that time.  As the disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles, it could meet its demise after 96 hours,as based on the current wind shear forecast, shear is forecast to remain prevalent over the Caribbean for the next 14 – 16 days.

The disturbance should continue off to the west, with a turn more toward the WNW in about 2 – 2.5 days, based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps.  At the moment, were I to speculate on future track, based on the lack of dynamic model guidance, which will probably run later today, I am just south of the LBAR model track in the 12Z Statistical Model Guidance package.

12Z STATISTICAL MODEL RUN
12zatcfearlyinvest95L

I will continue to monitor INVEST 95L for any significant changes throughout the day, and if time allows, I may post another update later this evening.

Have a great weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SPECIAL EDITION: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L / TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L EATL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Thanks from us here in the USVI Sunshine ! Keep us posted, and I’ll start the cheer for sheer !!

  2. stefanie says:

    Thanks for the weekend update. 🙂

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looking like Cape Verde Season is starting early….think that is a future recipe for a very active Cape Verde Season??

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