Good day everyone!
I usually take the weekend off, so this will be considered a Special Edition.
INVEST 94L still persists in the GOMEX today. Based on satellite imagery, there has been no organization of this area. In fact, I really couldn’t discern a closed LLC in RGB and VIS satellite loop imagery.
The disturbance is moving slowly N to NNW, and I really expect no change in motion over the next 48-72 hours. This should bring the “center” ashore around the S. Texas, to S. Central Texas coast, with rain and gusts affecting TX, and likely some western portions of LA.
Based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, shear values are still running 20-25 knots over 94L. The current run of the GFS shear forecast map indicates shear may relax briefly, however the shear is forecast to increase thereafter. I do not honestly believe at the moment, this will have the chance to become really organized. It may take a shot at it when the shear relaxes, however in my opinion, I feel this will continue to struggle to organize until coming ashore.
Elsewhere, enter Tropical Disturbance INVEST 95L…EATL
INVEST 95L was designated earlier this morning. This is the area I mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, near the Cape Verde Islands. As of the 12Z (8:00 A.M.) ATCF FTP position, the disturbance was located near 7.8N…32.6W. This disturbance is moving to the west at around 15-20 mph. Maximum sustained wind was 30 mph. Pressure was estimated to be 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Analysis of satellite loop images this morning indicate this disturbance continues to become slowly better organized.
Currently, the low is in an area of semi favorable upper level winds with minimal upper divergence. The current Wind Shear, and Zonal Shear forecast indicate upper level winds may become more conducive through the next 72 hours. Based on this premise, I believe further slow organization should occur, and cannot rule out the probability of 95L becoming a Tropical Depression within that time. As the disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles, it could meet its demise after 96 hours,as based on the current wind shear forecast, shear is forecast to remain prevalent over the Caribbean for the next 14 – 16 days.
The disturbance should continue off to the west, with a turn more toward the WNW in about 2 – 2.5 days, based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps. At the moment, were I to speculate on future track, based on the lack of dynamic model guidance, which will probably run later today, I am just south of the LBAR model track in the 12Z Statistical Model Guidance package.
I will continue to monitor INVEST 95L for any significant changes throughout the day, and if time allows, I may post another update later this evening.
Have a great weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)