Good evening all!
Looks like the NHC has taken enough interest in the GOMEX, and has designated the surface low in the GOMEX INVEST 94L just a short time ago. At the time of designation, the following was available from the ATCF FTP information site for the 1800Z (2:00 P.M.) position:
LOCATED: 22.9N…96.0W
MOVEMENT: NNW 5-10 mph
MAX SUSTAINED: 25 mph
PRESSURE: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) chance of this developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 48 hours.
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
The surface low is in a weak steering regime at the moment, but should continue to move generally toward the NNW to WNW over the next 24-36 hours.
Current wind shear values are still holding at around 20-25 knots, however the shear tendency has been shown to be decreasing during the past 24 hours.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
The available run of the GFS wind shear forecast seems to indicate Zonal Shear could become a little more forgiving in about 24-36 hours, with Zonal Shear values dropping to zero in about 66-72 hours over a good portion of the West Central GOMEX, albeit there will be lacking an upper level anticyclone. I am really not expecting too much from this at the moment.
Current steering indicates at the moment a combined flow of WNW. The current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site suggests in the next 24 hours, more of a flow to the NNW to N. For right now, until I see whether or not we could get any further development from this, I believe the surface low to come ashore possibly within the range of the TX / MEXICO border, to the S. Central TX coast.
CURRENT STEERING
I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes to any of these parameters.
I will have an update in the a. m.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER 
Thanks Storm for this late report. Question , I’ve been keeping track of “Invests” this year in the Atlantic, and according to my records, we HAD invest #94L back on June 22cd of this year. It was located at 33.8N and 78.5W. What’s going on?
Storm, I did some research, and found out the Invest which was back on June 22cd, was an un-numbered invest–didn’t know they had such a thing, but I guess they do!
If I remember, in my opinion, I think they jumped the gun. I think the Navy site may have designated it, but the NHC never designated it as official. I’m still trying to learn about what they call “decks” as far as designating INVEST. There is an “A” deck, and a “B” deck. The Navy may designate it on their Automated site, however if the NHC analyzes the area, and feels it isn’t justified, they will keep it in the A deck. When the NHC places it in the B deck, then it’s officially recognized as an INVEST.
we got other yellow circle stormw
Thanks Javier!
Thanks Storm…passing your synopsis along to the gang.
Thanks Storm…Keeping an eye out. How much rain do you think we could get from the GOM disturbance? I am in SE TX about 10-15 minutes from the LA border.
Thanks Storm. I don’t know why they think it’s going to flood us up here. But that’s ok. The rest of Texas needs the rain. Appreciate the update. 🙂
Thanks Stef!