TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L SYNOPSIS…GOMEX…JULY 05, 2013…ISSUED 6:20 P.M. EDT..PHFC

Good evening all!

Looks like the NHC has taken enough interest in the GOMEX, and has designated the surface low in the GOMEX INVEST 94L just a short time ago.  At the time of designation, the following was available from the ATCF FTP information site for the 1800Z (2:00 P.M.) position:

LOCATED: 22.9N…96.0W
MOVEMENT: NNW 5-10 mph
MAX SUSTAINED: 25 mph
PRESSURE: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
rgb0-lalo

The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) chance of this developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

The surface low is in a weak steering regime at the moment, but should continue to move generally toward the NNW to WNW over the next 24-36 hours.

Current wind shear values are still holding at around 20-25 knots, however the shear tendency has been shown to be decreasing during the past 24 hours.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS

The available run of the GFS wind shear forecast seems to indicate Zonal Shear could become a little more forgiving in about 24-36 hours, with Zonal Shear values dropping to zero in about 66-72 hours over a good portion of the West Central GOMEX, albeit there will be lacking an upper level anticyclone.  I am really not expecting too much from this at the moment.

Current steering indicates at the moment a combined flow of WNW.  The current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site suggests in the next 24 hours, more of a flow to the NNW to N.  For right now, until I see whether or not we could get any further development from this, I believe the surface low to come ashore possibly within the range of the TX / MEXICO border, to the S. Central TX coast.

CURRENT STEERING

I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes to any of these parameters.

I will have an update in the a. m.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L SYNOPSIS…GOMEX…JULY 05, 2013…ISSUED 6:20 P.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for this late report. Question , I’ve been keeping track of “Invests” this year in the Atlantic, and according to my records, we HAD invest #94L back on June 22cd of this year. It was located at 33.8N and 78.5W. What’s going on?

    • originallt says:

      Storm, I did some research, and found out the Invest which was back on June 22cd, was an un-numbered invest–didn’t know they had such a thing, but I guess they do!

    • If I remember, in my opinion, I think they jumped the gun. I think the Navy site may have designated it, but the NHC never designated it as official. I’m still trying to learn about what they call “decks” as far as designating INVEST. There is an “A” deck, and a “B” deck. The Navy may designate it on their Automated site, however if the NHC analyzes the area, and feels it isn’t justified, they will keep it in the A deck. When the NHC places it in the B deck, then it’s officially recognized as an INVEST.

  2. javier valdes says:

    we got other yellow circle stormw

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…passing your synopsis along to the gang.

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm…Keeping an eye out. How much rain do you think we could get from the GOM disturbance? I am in SE TX about 10-15 minutes from the LA border.

  5. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. I don’t know why they think it’s going to flood us up here. But that’s ok. The rest of Texas needs the rain. Appreciate the update. 🙂

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s