Good evening all!
Looks like the NHC has taken enough interest in the GOMEX, and has designated the surface low in the GOMEX INVEST 94L just a short time ago. At the time of designation, the following was available from the ATCF FTP information site for the 1800Z (2:00 P.M.) position:
The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) chance of this developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next 48 hours.
The surface low is in a weak steering regime at the moment, but should continue to move generally toward the NNW to WNW over the next 24-36 hours.
Current wind shear values are still holding at around 20-25 knots, however the shear tendency has been shown to be decreasing during the past 24 hours.
The available run of the GFS wind shear forecast seems to indicate Zonal Shear could become a little more forgiving in about 24-36 hours, with Zonal Shear values dropping to zero in about 66-72 hours over a good portion of the West Central GOMEX, albeit there will be lacking an upper level anticyclone. I am really not expecting too much from this at the moment.
Current steering indicates at the moment a combined flow of WNW. The current run of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site suggests in the next 24 hours, more of a flow to the NNW to N. For right now, until I see whether or not we could get any further development from this, I believe the surface low to come ashore possibly within the range of the TX / MEXICO border, to the S. Central TX coast.
I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes to any of these parameters.
I will have an update in the a. m.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)