TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 03, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT..PHFC

Good day everyone!

An area of disturbed weather I’ve been watching over the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel is associated with a broad surface trof.  The NHC in Miami has indicated in there Tropical Weather Outlook product, this area has a 10% (LOW) chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery tends to support an elongated dominate low center developing, albeit up around 700 mb based on the current vorticity map values, near 19.0N;92.5W.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CIMSS VORTICITY MAP

Current wind shear over the area, based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, indicates 20 knots of SWLY shear.  The current run of the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may become marginally conducive over the next 24-36 hours, with a waxing and waning between marginal and favorable thereafter.  Albeit this may occur, a “center” has to move out into the open waters of the BOC to be able to take advantage of this.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 


The NCEP and Multi Model Ensembles from 06Z, and the SREF Ensemble from 12Z show a fairly high chance for development in the BOC over the next 48-120 hours, albeit the Global Models indicate otherwise.

SREF ENSEMBLE 00-48 HOURS CYCLOGENESIS MAP

MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE

NCEP ENSEMBLE

The current steering layers map shows weak steering currents over the BOC at the moment, however a weakness in the the ridge directly north of the BOC should allow for a NNW-NW drift over the next 48 hours.  Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, a more pronounced NNW motion, then NWD motion could ensue after that.

Based on the sloppy appearance this morning, and an increase in shear to the north, I am not really impressed with development at this point, although I will continue to monitor this area in case any significant changes occur.  SHOULD this show signs of development, it would most likely be a weak system to that of Tropical Depression level.

Elsewhere, the area in the CATL I have been watching, has diminished in activity.  Some very stable dry air as noted by the stratocumulus cloud deck diving SW toward the area should keep this in check.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Should we not see development in the BOC / GOMEX within the next 72 – 96 hours, I would almost suspect not to see anything significant, or an uptick in convective activity until around the end of July, possibly into the first week of Aug., as we have pretty much lost the upward motion phase of the MJO.  IF the MJO behaves in a normal pattern, I wouldn’t expect it to be back around to our basin for about 30 days or so.  By that time, it will be time for us to look toward the MDR and the Cape Verde Season for development.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JULY 03, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Oh, BTW, saw on TWC that there is some sort of mid-level vortex that will be moving Westward from the Atlantic towards maybe Florida,by the weekend, have you heard anything about that?

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Seems busy out there with “little stuff”. Hope you are right and nothing much develops for another month or so.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm. It does look messy out there is the GOM…

  4. When is the rain leaving Pinellas County, So tired of working in my rain coat. I am working 24 hours tomorrow on the Critical Care truck and would like to not have to worry about the rain. Any thoughts on when this pattern might change?

    Have a blessed day!

  5. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m trying to wish this mess into Texas for the rain. South of me could use a good sloppy rainy wave or depression. Would that be Texascasting? 🙂 You have a great day too!

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…all over it as usual. Any thoughts on Invest 97E?

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