Good day everyone!
An area of disturbed weather I’ve been watching over the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel is associated with a broad surface trof. The NHC in Miami has indicated in there Tropical Weather Outlook product, this area has a 10% (LOW) chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Satellite loop imagery tends to support an elongated dominate low center developing, albeit up around 700 mb based on the current vorticity map values, near 19.0N;92.5W.
CIMSS VORTICITY MAP
Current wind shear over the area, based on the current wind shear map from CIMSS, indicates 20 knots of SWLY shear. The current run of the GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may become marginally conducive over the next 24-36 hours, with a waxing and waning between marginal and favorable thereafter. Albeit this may occur, a “center” has to move out into the open waters of the BOC to be able to take advantage of this.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
The NCEP and Multi Model Ensembles from 06Z, and the SREF Ensemble from 12Z show a fairly high chance for development in the BOC over the next 48-120 hours, albeit the Global Models indicate otherwise.
The current steering layers map shows weak steering currents over the BOC at the moment, however a weakness in the the ridge directly north of the BOC should allow for a NNW-NW drift over the next 48 hours. Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, a more pronounced NNW motion, then NWD motion could ensue after that.
Based on the sloppy appearance this morning, and an increase in shear to the north, I am not really impressed with development at this point, although I will continue to monitor this area in case any significant changes occur. SHOULD this show signs of development, it would most likely be a weak system to that of Tropical Depression level.
Elsewhere, the area in the CATL I have been watching, has diminished in activity. Some very stable dry air as noted by the stratocumulus cloud deck diving SW toward the area should keep this in check.
Should we not see development in the BOC / GOMEX within the next 72 – 96 hours, I would almost suspect not to see anything significant, or an uptick in convective activity until around the end of July, possibly into the first week of Aug., as we have pretty much lost the upward motion phase of the MJO. IF the MJO behaves in a normal pattern, I wouldn’t expect it to be back around to our basin for about 30 days or so. By that time, it will be time for us to look toward the MDR and the Cape Verde Season for development.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)