TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 27, 2013…ISSUED 6:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening everyone!

Although satellite imagery shows an increase of convection around areas of the Caribbean and CATL, there is really nothing impressive at the moment to speak of.

One area I have a slight interest in, is located near 54W AND 7N.  Albeit just a small area of convection, there is vorticity associated with this at the 850 and 700 mb levels.  Some cyclonic turning is also noted in satellite loop imagery.  Another large area of showers and thunderstorms is located between 35W and 45W in the CATL and will be monitored for any  lowering of pressure and/or cyclonic rotation.

WATL AND CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

As of analysis of Global Models this afternoon, the idea of development in the Yucatan Channel or BOC has been dropped.  In fact, the NCEP Ensemble  EMC Cyclogenesis Model page have given much less credence to any development in that region, and focusing mainly on the extreme EPAC.

NCEP EMC CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST

However, I am going to monitor the progress of the area of convection near 54W, as it continues to move to the WNW over the next 60-72 hours, before moving toward the west.

IF anything is going to try and pop in the BOC or W. Caribbean, the initialization should begin in the next 3-4 days, as the MJO Multivariate Index Phase Diagram indicates the MJO will be into the favorable area of Octant 1.  The NCEP 500 mb anomaly departure also indicates a lowering of pressures in the GOMEX over the next 48 through 96 hours.

MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX PHASE DIAGRAM CURRENT AND FORECAST


NCEP 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

As far as the Atlantic, climatology dictates the season is fairly low key in July, albeit we can see development in the CATL beginning around mid July.  I am still somewhat skeptical of seeing anything in the Atlantic over at least the next 10 days.  The Atlantic ridge is just too strong at the moment, inducing a stable environment in the MDR right now.  The average MSLP has been running around 1030 mb-1032 mb.  A couple of the models in fact, show it growing stronger, on the order of 1040 mb – 1042 mb, before we see a possible weakening trend.  IF the NAO ensemble mean forecast continues to show a drop in the NAO strength, then I’ll buy looking out toward the Atlantic after the 10th of July…however, I am not expecting anything out there until this drops toward 0.5 to neutral.

NAO ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST

SST Anomalies haven’t changed much, albeit slightly cooler in Nino 3.4, and slightly warmer off the immediate African west coast

SST ANOMALY MAP

I will continue to monitor the tropics, and the areas mentioned for any significant changes over the next 96-120 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 27, 2013…ISSUED 6:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thank you Storm….Kinda surprised things are not really happening, but then, I guess it will soon enough. I wonder if it will be like 05 (we had Rita) where there was storm after storm out there….

    • dellamom says:

      God, I hope not a repeat of 2005! We had Katrina that year and evacuated to Texas. My sister’s family was scheduled to stay in Beaumont through October 1 and them move in with me. Needless to say, they then had to flee Rita before October 1. Also, the lakefront areas of Mandeville flooded badly that year for Cindy, Katrina and Rita. They’d just get dried out from one and another one would hit. No more 2005!!!

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm. You are great last you was about. On your forecast when we do get something this blog will explode. Mr storm a question with the way. That Bermuda. High. Is setting. Up does that not. Look good for us want that. Increase. Our. Chances. Of a land. Fall.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. After a booming start…things look pretty mellow out there.

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