Good day everyone!
The Tropical Atlantic and sub-basins are quiet again this morning. Tropical Waves are noted on the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis Map, however there are no significant features with these waves. The wave which was initialized near 40W, has some heavy convection west of the axis, however this will move ashore into South America. I do not anticipate any development from these waves mentioned, as the Caribbean is under a hostile wind shear environment, along with a TUTT axis into the Yucatan area. Upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development for at least the next 5-7 days, before the wind shear forecast indicates a weakening in wind shear.
Analysis of Global Models this morning indicates the GFS has totally dropped the idea of development over the NW Caribbean/BOC area, with the CMC following close behind, only now showing a very small, weak entity coming across near the Florida Panhandle area.
Does this mean we can relax monitoring this area? Not in particular. The NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis model page, valid 06Z today, indicates a HIGH probability of cyclogenesis in the BOC within the next 120-240 hours (now minus 8-9 hours from the forecast time). Albeit this range is 5-10 days out, this model seemed to perform well with both Andrea and Barry.
Second, the Dynamic Forecast Models for the MJO Multivariate Index Phase Diagram indicates the upward motion phase of the MJO is now entering the GOMEX/W. Caribbean area. Upward motion of the MJO as a rule, enhances tropical rainfall, and provides Upward Vertical Velocity (lift) in the atmosphere (promotes convection). This feature is what helped to spawn Hurricane Cosme in the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast is for the MJO to continue eastward into the latter portion of Octant 8 of the index, and then into Octant 1, when we could POSSIBLY see development in either the W. Caribbean or BOC. The UKMET seems to have been handling the forecast well, along with the ECMWF. Again, in this scenario, real time monitoring, combined with real time and forecast shear products will be the best way to handle the disagreement between the Global Models solution, and upcoming signs with the NCEP ENS. EMC modeling, and MJO signal.
Elsewhere, it appears a Tropical Wave has entered the Atlantic off the African coast. This is currently displaying a well defined ball of convection. I will be monitoring this as it moves west, to WNW over the next few days, as wind shear values may reduce enough west of this feature for some slow organization, albeit not only based on climatology, I really don’t look for any development in the Tropical Atlantic until the A/B High is able to weaken to within the 1024-1026 mb range. Currently, with the high averaging 1030 mb, it is providing too stable of an environment in the MDR. In fact, dry air noted is not so much SAL, but do to the high compressing sinking air and warming the atmosphere, drying it out. This can be verified by the following satellite image in that stratocumulus clouds are much more prevalent than African dust.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INSTABILITY
I will continue to monitor the tropics, especially the GOMEX/W. Caribbean for any significant changes over the next 5-7 days.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)