TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 25, 2013…ISSUED 2:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The ITCZ is a little more active today, however really nothing to speak of.  3 Tropical Waves were initialized on the NHC 06Z Surface analysis map.

NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP 06Z RUN

WATL AND CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I do not expect to see any development from these waves, as wind shear is still fairly brisk over the Caribbean and into the Tropical Atlantic.

Based on Global Model analysis this morning, the GFS is not very excited about any development in the GOMEX/Caribbean basins over the next 7-8 days, while the CMC is still bullish on developing a minimal CAT 1 Hurricane and bringing it toward FLA. Panhandle

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical192

CMC

Albeit the CMC has been consistent in this for the last 24-36 hours or so, I am not sure I am fully sold on this solution.  A few things lead me to question this…such as, given the time this leaves the Yucatan Peninsula, until approaching the Gulf coast, it’s a pretty quick spin up.  Based on the current wind shear forecast, I just don’t see this ramping up in 48 hours.  Not to say that the shear forecast does not become favorable, as both GFS and CMC show a developing upper level anticyclone, I just don’t believe it is favorable enough to warrant such intensification.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

CMC SHEAR FORECAST

Two other items make me skeptical in that, lowering of pressures near the area around that time in the forecast period, are more significant over the S. GOMEX, as opposed to the Yucatan Channel.

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

500 MB heights show a trof over the OH/TN valley, in which the PGF would be negated over the Yucatan, albeit there could be a somewhat minimal piling of air as air flow from the western periphery of the A/B high slows.

Based on the lowering of pressures in the GOMEX, and near the Yucatan, I believe we may see some type of development down that way, as the MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX is still forecasting a strong upward motion phase of the MJO in the GOMEX/Caribbean in about 4 days.  As the MJO enters approximately halfway between Octant 8 and Octant 1, is when the best chance for development should occur, if any.  As the MJO progresses slowly toward the end of Octant 1 heading into Octant 2, the possibility exists that development could occur in the CATL, after the first 10 days of July.  With really no agreement between the Global Models on the GOMEX, but with the CMC being very persistent, it will be prudent to monitor things carefully, and forecast off of real time observations, and forecast wind shear to see what does actually occur.

MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX CURRENT AND FORECAST

You can see where the strongest pulse of the MJO is at the moment, by the green contours, which indicates upward motion in the extreme EPAC

For giggles and grins, I chose to compare TCHP values from one of our busy seasons (2008), to the current values for 2013.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 25, 2013…ISSUED 2:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m with you, I don’t see much in the next 10 days or so–CLIMATOLOGY! But never say never, I see you said the MJO is coming around to the GOMEX and Western Caribbean in 4-7days, so I guess it could.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    These models are all over the place. One showed TX/LA, MS/AL, and now FL….
    I guess you definitely take these with a grain of salt until something actually develops.

  3. stuffunee says:

    UGH! Looks worse than 2008! That season got busy for me in a hurry. But I learned a lot since then. 🙂 Thanks Storm.

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