Good day everyone!
The ITCZ is a little more active today, however really nothing to speak of. 3 Tropical Waves were initialized on the NHC 06Z Surface analysis map.
I do not expect to see any development from these waves, as wind shear is still fairly brisk over the Caribbean and into the Tropical Atlantic.
Based on Global Model analysis this morning, the GFS is not very excited about any development in the GOMEX/Caribbean basins over the next 7-8 days, while the CMC is still bullish on developing a minimal CAT 1 Hurricane and bringing it toward FLA. Panhandle
Albeit the CMC has been consistent in this for the last 24-36 hours or so, I am not sure I am fully sold on this solution. A few things lead me to question this…such as, given the time this leaves the Yucatan Peninsula, until approaching the Gulf coast, it’s a pretty quick spin up. Based on the current wind shear forecast, I just don’t see this ramping up in 48 hours. Not to say that the shear forecast does not become favorable, as both GFS and CMC show a developing upper level anticyclone, I just don’t believe it is favorable enough to warrant such intensification.
Two other items make me skeptical in that, lowering of pressures near the area around that time in the forecast period, are more significant over the S. GOMEX, as opposed to the Yucatan Channel.
500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE
500 MB heights show a trof over the OH/TN valley, in which the PGF would be negated over the Yucatan, albeit there could be a somewhat minimal piling of air as air flow from the western periphery of the A/B high slows.
Based on the lowering of pressures in the GOMEX, and near the Yucatan, I believe we may see some type of development down that way, as the MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX is still forecasting a strong upward motion phase of the MJO in the GOMEX/Caribbean in about 4 days. As the MJO enters approximately halfway between Octant 8 and Octant 1, is when the best chance for development should occur, if any. As the MJO progresses slowly toward the end of Octant 1 heading into Octant 2, the possibility exists that development could occur in the CATL, after the first 10 days of July. With really no agreement between the Global Models on the GOMEX, but with the CMC being very persistent, it will be prudent to monitor things carefully, and forecast off of real time observations, and forecast wind shear to see what does actually occur.
MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX CURRENT AND FORECAST
You can see where the strongest pulse of the MJO is at the moment, by the green contours, which indicates upward motion in the extreme EPAC
For giggles and grins, I chose to compare TCHP values from one of our busy seasons (2008), to the current values for 2013.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)