Good day everyone! Late do to computer issues.
The Tropics are fairly quiet this afternoon. The 12Z Surface Analysis map from the NHC indicated two Tropical Waves…one over South America with the northern portion of the axis extending slightly into the Caribbean, and the other approaching the Windward Islands. The wave currently approaching the Islands is moving toward the WNW, however based on the current forecast steering layers maps, this could shift to more of a westward motion over the next 24 hours. I am not expecting development of this wave, based on current and forecast wind shear maps. However, this could be a trigger for possible development from the Yucatan Channel, to the SW GOMEX in the BOC.
Analysis of the surface map, NAO forecast, and current lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic, the Tropical Atlantic may be shut down over the next 10-14 days, unless the strong high over the Azores area loses its grip, and the NAO comes back to around neutral to negative. The strength of the current high is producing a stable environment over the Tropical Atlantic, hence Vertical Instability is well below climatology at the moment. This has also allowed for some further cooling in the MDR.
On another note, the Dynamic Model forecasts of the MJO Index have been consistent with a fairly strong upward motion phase of the MJO entering Octant 1 between 27-31 June, and possibly remaining for the first 10 days of July.
MJO INDEX DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST
In light of this, the GFS has once again picked back up on a solution of possible development in the BOC beginning around the 2nd of July. The CMC GGEM shows another solution, with a possible hurricane in the Central GOMEX. At first, one is apt to discount the CMC solution, due to it’s nickname…Constantly Making Cyclones…from last season. However, analysis of the updated wind shear forecast from both the GFS and CMC models, I cannot totally discount this at the moment, given both models indicate the tendency for an upper level anticyclone to develop around the region.
The most recent 8-10 day 500 mb height anomalies would be indicative of steering what the CMC is showing, and where it is located.
This is probably going to be best played in realtime forecasting, vice model output, due to inconsistencies in modeling. For instance, the NCEP 500 mb mean anomaly departure map now indicates the most significant pressure falls to be over Mexico and in the Eastern Pacific. However, due to the forecast of upward motion of the MJO, we are going to have to wait and see what does actually occur.
NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE
I will be monitoring things closely over these next 5-7 days for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, the GFS indicates a closed low in the Central Atlantic in 2 weeks. Though a bit too early for development out that way, I will monitor this for materialization, as the GFS wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone developing over that area at the same time.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)