TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 24, 2013…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!  Late do to computer issues.

The Tropics are fairly quiet this afternoon.  The 12Z Surface Analysis map from the NHC indicated two Tropical Waves…one over South America with the northern portion of the axis extending slightly into the Caribbean, and the other approaching the Windward Islands. The wave currently approaching the Islands is moving toward the WNW, however based on the current forecast steering layers maps, this could shift to more of a westward motion over the next 24 hours.  I am not expecting development of this wave, based on current and forecast wind shear maps.  However, this could be a trigger for possible development from the Yucatan Channel, to the SW GOMEX in the BOC.

NHC 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the surface map, NAO forecast, and current lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic, the Tropical Atlantic may be shut down over the next 10-14 days, unless the strong high over the Azores area loses its grip, and the NAO comes back to around neutral to negative.  The strength of the current high is producing a stable environment over the Tropical Atlantic, hence Vertical Instability is well below climatology at the moment.  This has also allowed for some further cooling in the MDR.

NAO FORECAST

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY CHART

On another note, the Dynamic Model forecasts of the MJO Index have been consistent with a fairly strong upward motion phase of the MJO entering Octant 1 between 27-31 June, and possibly remaining for the first 10 days of July.

MJO INDEX DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST

In light of this, the GFS has once again picked back up on a solution of possible development in the BOC beginning around the 2nd of July.  The CMC GGEM shows another solution, with a possible hurricane in the Central GOMEX.  At first, one is apt to discount the CMC solution, due to it’s nickname…Constantly Making Cyclones…from last season.  However, analysis of the updated wind shear forecast from both the GFS and CMC  models, I cannot totally discount this at the moment, given both models indicate the tendency for an upper level anticyclone to develop around the region.

GFS SOLUTION
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical216

CMC SOLUTION
00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240

The most recent 8-10 day 500 mb height anomalies would be indicative of steering what the CMC is showing, and where it is located.

This is probably going to be best played in realtime forecasting, vice model output, due to inconsistencies in modeling.  For instance, the NCEP 500 mb mean anomaly departure map now indicates the most significant pressure falls to be over Mexico and in the Eastern Pacific.  However, due to the forecast of upward motion of the MJO, we are going to have to wait and see what does actually occur.

NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

I will be monitoring things closely over these next 5-7 days for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, the GFS indicates a closed low in the Central Atlantic in 2 weeks.  Though a bit too early for development out that way, I will monitor this for materialization, as the GFS wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone developing over that area at the same time.

GFS AND CMC WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 24, 2013…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm. Hope you and everyone had a good day. I’m behind as usual. Lol.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…nice on the CMC nickname. The GFS was stellar last year…hope it and CMC are wrong on this one.

  3. greg goodman says:

    Thanks Mr storm a little close for comfort but i did hear they have updated the C.M.C has it been a little more accurate?

  4. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. That pretty much answers my “dancing” analogy and questions in the earlier synopsis. Although I don’t like that “hurricane in the Central GOMEX” part, it is nice to see that we can still have humor during hurricane season (Constantly Making Cyclones is a real hoot). I hope you are getting rest now because I really don’t think there will be a whole lot of time for that particular commodity later if the first three weeks of hurricane season are any indication. 😦

  5. TexasHurricane says:

    I realize nothing has developed as of yet, but that does look close to home. I am about 15 minutes away from the LA border. How strong does that show? Will be keeping an eye on your updates. Thanks Storm!

      • TexasHurricane says:

        ok, well I guess if you have to have one at least it is a cat 1 (although those can be bad too). Kinda hard to tell which direction it has it going (More to TX or LA) My guess would be LA just because they usually do go that way (not wishing any on them by no means…just saying)

        • dellamom says:

          I understand your position completely. I don’t wish harm on anyone else, either, but I’m happy when it doesn’t hit me! And they usually do eventually make an eastern curve. I’m just glad we have the Northshore house pretty close to done so we can all gather there if need be. The party line here is that the levees are just fine and will protect the Southshore communities, but I wouldn’t want to bet my life on it since those are teh same people who were saying they were fine before Katrina..

          • TexasHurricane says:

            Yeah, I guess time will tell. See where we are with it in a week or so. If it does develop then we will have more of an idea of what to expect.

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