Good day everyone!
Two Tropical waves were analyzed this morning in the 06Z NHC Surface Analysis Map, and are moving to the west. The wave initially analyzed near 43W has an excellent inverted “V” signature:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a mid to upper level low continues to move to the NW, located just east of the Bahamas. While I am not expecting any development from this, satellite loop imagery this morning indicates a newly developed area of low pressure, designated in the map overlay (Fronts) as a 1017 mb low, SE off the NC/SC coastal area. Recent satellite loop imagery indicates cyclonic rotation has increased in this area over the past hour. Based on current steering layers, this low is in weak steering currents at the moment. The current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicate this may remain pretty much stationary during the next 24 hours, possible northward drift, before being turned to the NE in about 36 hours. Given the current wind shear forecast, I am not looking for development, however conditions could become as such to allow for a chance at subtropical development, albeit slim.
Analysis today still reveals some positive factors that indicate another possible Tropical Storm development IVO where Tropical Storm Barry just came from. These factors are the same that bore both Andrea and Barry.
The GFS has been fairly consistent so far in indicating another development at the very end of the month, to first week of July. Using the mean of the runs, we’ll say close to July fourth. The GFS starts this out in almost the exact area the INVEST for Barry was located. The model starts this around the 28th, and moves it NW, through the uprights, then into the GOMEX. As far as exact track, this should be taken with a grain of salt right now, however, as far as cyclogenesis, I will not rule this out, as the GFS thus far is 2 for 2 on detecting cyclogenesis at 2 weeks out.
Another item that supports this, is the current forecast of the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure. A significant lowering of pressures is forecast within the the forecast time mentioned.
Analysis of MJO forecast products indicates a fairly moderate to strong upward motion phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). This promotes upward vertical velocities and moisture in the atmosphere. In the index forecast, the first graphic, I have drawn the favored areas of Octants 8 and 1 for development in the GOMEX and Caribbean.
MJO INDEX FORECAST
MJO OLR FORECAST (BLUE SHOWS UPWARD MOTION)
The current wind shear forecast from the GFS medium and long range forecast times indicates a fairly large and well established upper level anti-cyclone that develops weakly in the very first stages of the system shown, but moves in tandem, becoming better established over the GOMEX in that portion of the forecast period.
I will continue to monitor subsequent runs on the Global Models, Wind Shear forecast, and any significant changes to the MJO pattern.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)