TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 21, 2013…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Two Tropical waves were analyzed this morning in the 06Z NHC Surface Analysis Map, and are moving to the west.  The wave initially analyzed near 43W has an excellent inverted “V” signature:

NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP (06Z)
Atl_Tropics
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An area of disturbed weather associated with a mid to upper level low continues to move to the NW, located just east of the Bahamas.  While I am not expecting any development from this, satellite loop imagery this morning indicates a newly developed area of low pressure, designated in the map overlay (Fronts) as a 1017 mb low, SE off the NC/SC coastal area.  Recent satellite loop imagery indicates cyclonic rotation has increased in this area over the past hour.  Based on current steering layers, this low is in weak steering currents at the moment.  The current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicate this may remain pretty much stationary during the next 24 hours, possible northward drift, before being turned to the NE in about 36 hours.  Given the current wind shear forecast, I am not looking for development, however conditions could become as such to allow for a chance at subtropical development, albeit slim.

EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis today still reveals some positive factors that indicate another possible Tropical Storm development IVO where Tropical Storm Barry just came from.  These factors are the same that bore both Andrea and Barry.

The GFS has been fairly consistent so far in indicating another development at the very end of the month, to first week of July.  Using the mean of the runs, we’ll say close to July fourth.  The GFS starts this out in almost the exact area the INVEST for Barry was located.  The model starts this around the 28th, and moves it NW, through the uprights, then into the GOMEX.  As far as exact track, this should be taken with a grain of salt right now, however, as far as cyclogenesis, I will not rule this out, as the GFS thus far is 2 for 2 on detecting cyclogenesis at 2 weeks out.

GFS SOLUTION
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical180

06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical216

06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240

Another item that supports this, is the current forecast of the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure.  A significant lowering of pressures is forecast within the the forecast time mentioned.

NCEP 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURES
z500nanom_f192_usbg

z500nanom_f216_usbg

z500nanom_f288_usbg

z500nanom_f312_usbg

Analysis of MJO forecast products indicates a fairly moderate to strong upward motion phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  This promotes upward vertical velocities and moisture in the atmosphere.  In the index forecast, the first graphic, I have drawn the favored areas of Octants 8 and 1 for development in the GOMEX and Caribbean.

MJO INDEX FORECAST

ECMWF

GEFS

UKMET

GEFS BIAS CORRECTED

MJO OLR FORECAST (BLUE SHOWS UPWARD MOTION)

The current wind shear forecast from the GFS medium and long range forecast times indicates a fairly large and well established upper level anti-cyclone that develops weakly in the very first stages of the system shown, but moves in tandem, becoming better established over the GOMEX in that portion of the forecast period.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear30

850200shear36

850200shear36

I will continue to monitor subsequent runs on the Global Models, Wind Shear forecast, and any significant changes to the MJO pattern.

 

 

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 21, 2013…ISSUED 12:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    I am working through lunch, but took a second to pull up the nhc.noaa satellite. EEEKKK! it may not be as bad as it looks to me, but there is so much movement and swirling it reminds me of an overhead shot of a movie showing a ballroom scene … lots of movement, dotted with various swirls. There’s something that looks like a wave just of the Honduras/Nicaragua coast, and features that appear to be spinning or starting to spin in the mid-southern Atlantic, just off the Windward Islands, and just east of the Bahamas. There is another spinning feature in the Gulf off of the Florida coast, but it appears to be spinning in the wrong direction. I know all of this shows how little I know about meteorology and terminology therefor, but that’s a lot of motion. And it’s still June. I really hope some of those spinning features just walk off the dance floor!

  2. stuffunee says:

    Thanks Storm. UGGH! Indeed. And Texashurricane, yep we’ll be in at least watch mode until October. 🙂

  3. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks for the update Storm. Looks like I could be out of town for the fireworks. It will much cooler in Maine than South Alabama. Now the question is how do I prepare before I leave HMMMM that is the question. Thanks for the dilemma!!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, well if the GFS is right their will be more than just “fire-works” going on for that date!

  5. TexasHurricane says:

    By this one it looks to be more Mississippi and Alabama…. It must be that TX high. We seem to be known for that…..However I will continue to keep an eye out in case anything changes.

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It doesn’t look like there are going to be too many dull moments this season!!

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