TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…EVENING EDITION…JUNE 20, 2103…ISSUED 7:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening!

As promised earlier, the outlook of the premise for future storm development in the Caribbean / GOMEX during the first week of July.

Analysis today revealed some positive factors that indicate another possible Tropical Storm development IVO where Tropical Storm Barry just came from.  These factors are the same that bore both Andrea and Barry.

The GFS has been fairly consistent so far in indicating another development at the very end of the month, to first week of July.  Using the mean of the runs, we’ll say close to July fourth.  The GFS starts this out in almost the exact area the INVEST for Barry was located.  The model starts this around the 28th, and moves it NW across the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the GOMEX, targeting the LA/TX area.  As far as exact track, this should be taken with a grain of salt right now, however, as far as cyclogenesis, I will not rule this out, as the GFS thus far is 2 for 2 on detecting cyclogenesis at 2 weeks out.

GFS SOLUTION
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical192

12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240

12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical276

Another item that supports this, is the current forecast of the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure.  A significant lowering of pressures is forecast within the the forecast time mentioned.

NCEP 500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURES
z500nanom_f192_usbg

z500nanom_f240_usbg

z500nanom_f312_usbg

Analysis of MJO forecast products indicates a fairly moderate to strong upward motion phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  This promotes upward vertical velocities and moisture in the atmosphere.  In the index forecast, the first graphic, I have drawn the favored areas of Octants 8 and 1 for development in the GOMEX and Caribbean.

MJO INDEX FORECAST

ECMWF
ECMF_phase_51m_full
GEFS
NCPE_phase_21m_full
UKMET
UKME_phase_23m_full
GEFS BIAS CORRECTED
NCPE_BC_phase_21m_full

MJO OLR FORECAST (BLUE SHOWS UPWARD MOTION)

The current wind shear forecast from the GFS medium and long range forecast times indicates a fairly large and well established upper level anti-cyclone that develops weakly in the very first stages of the system shown, but moves in tandem, becoming better established over the GOMEX in that portion of the forecast period.  One note on the shear forecast…as the upper level anti-cyclone moves in tandem, the zero line (Purple line) remains pretty much over the center of the system throughout its trek.  IF all of these factors come together as shown, the GFS may be underestimating strength of this possible Tropical Storm.  I am posting the times which coincide with the GFS output showing the system so you may see where the zero line is in relation to the storm

GFS ZONAL SHEAR

192 HOURS

240 HOURS

276 HOURS

I will continue to monitor subsequent runs on the Global Models, Wind Shear forecast, and any significant changes to the MJO pattern.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…EVENING EDITION…JUNE 20, 2103…ISSUED 7:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Hello. Dellamom iguess its been 5 years since the United. States has been it by a major hurricane in guess it time Mr storm is watching it for. Us he is the best.

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks Mr storm. Wait and see thing thank you for. Your. Service.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm for another understandable and informative report. I agree with TexasHurricane that it looks way to close to me for comfort. How strong is the GFS expecting? How much stronger are you feeling? I understand it is two weeks out and it may be all different by then, but would like to know what your worst case scenario would be if it hit near me since I have a couple of older disabled women to move if they need to get out of flood-prone areas. Thanks again for all you do for us and thanks to the others on the site who contribute their knowledge.

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Guess I have to watch the tropics while in Maine that week. Just what I need to come home to a tropical system. This far out anything is possible.

    Thanks Storm have a great evening!!!!!
    \

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…always on top of it!! That’s a pretty big if…if a frog had side pockets…he could carry hand grenades…ha…gotta love the models.

  6. TexasHurricane says:

    Well, you did say us in TX may be in the run this year. By the look at that model looks maybe more LA than TX but what do I know….. I will be keeping an eye on the tropics and your blog. 🙂

  7. stuffunee says:

    Ugh! Thanks Storm.

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