TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 19, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 A.M EDT…PHFC

JUNE 19, 2013…5:15 P.M. EDT…TROPICAL STORM BARRY UPDATE:

As of the 5:00 p.m. regular advisory, the following was available on Tropical Storm Barry:

4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6°N 95.2°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 40 mph

HURREVAC TRACKING MAP
TROPICAL STORM BARRY #1

Barry is moving slowly to the west, and I expect this motion to continue until landfall.  Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph.  Further strengthening is likely until landfall.  If conditions become favorable as shown in the GFS forecast shear map, Barry could attain 50 mph prior to landfall.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY SATELLITE FLOATER LOOP

I’ll have another complete synopsis in the morning.

“Storm”

 

JUNE 19, 3:15 P.M. EDT…TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARRY.  The following is from the NHC Update Statement at 1:45 p.m.:
000 WTNT62 KNHC 191844 TCUAT2 

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE 

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 

145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
…SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO…

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED…AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY…THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

I will have a full update once the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory is issued.

JUNE 19, 2013…11:00 A.M. EDT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO UPDATE…

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, the following information was available on Tropical Depression Two from the NHC:

10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6°N 94.5°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

Satellite imagery indicates the depression continues to become better organized.

Based on information contained in the NHC Forecast Discussion, it’s possible the depression may have attained Tropical Storm status.
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM…IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT…A MEXICAN NAVY METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

The depression is now moving toward the west, and I have no change to my forecast logic, albeit with the premise of earlier T.S. formation, I will not rule out sustained winds prior to landfall of 50 mph, which is slightly higher than the NHC intensity forecast.  I will try to have another update this evening.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

 12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H 22/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Good day everyone!

Analysis yesterday throughout the day of satellite loop imagery, did indicate the center of Tropical Depression Two had reformed slightly toward the NNE, albeit by only approximately 40-60 NM.

As of the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Depression Two:

7:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.4°N 94.0°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC TRACKING MAPS
TD2 120 HOUR

TD2 72 HOUR WIND SWATH

The depression is moving slowly to the WNW, however current satellite loop imagery seems to indicate the depression may be slowing down, and beginning to make the forecast turn to the west.  It is noted, the LLC may be trying to move under the area of heaviest convection.

TD2 AND GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on the current steering layer map, this would seem plausible.

Analysis of the current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicates the turn to the west in about 12 hours, but again, satellite indicates this turn may be occurring early.

Given this, I concur with the NHC Official forecast track, and the system should make landfall within the next 36 hours.

NHC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/191137.shtml?

The depression has been undergoing 20 knots of wind shear, however recent motion and analysis of the wind shear map from CIMSS, the system should be entering an area of wind shear of only 15 knots.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

Based on the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast, and projected forward speed of the depression, it should have an area of favorable upper level winds, as the shear forecast still indicates a small, but brief upper level anticyclone to be over the system for about 12 hours, which should occur later this afternoon or early tonight.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on this, Tropical Depression Two should become Tropical Storm Barry prior to landfall in Mexico.  This is supported by the NHC.  However, with the slowly improving structure of the system this morning, slowing of forward speed, and the depression entering an area where shear values are around 5 knots less, I believe we may see Tropical Storm Barry possibly 6 hours earlier than forecast.  In any event, we should see a minimal Tropical Storm prior to landfall, and I concur right now with the NHC intensity forecast.

From the NHC Advisory:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL…THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. 
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

I will be monitoring this situation during the day.  Please visit often, as I will be posting updates on this same synopsis page, so clients will not get the update alert in email since a new page is not being made.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 19, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 A.M EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, keeping in mind that I am meteorologically illiterate and require a large amount of forgiveness, I note that there are two features visible in the Atlantic. One is near 23N 80W, and the other I estimate to be close to 30N 70W. Both are spinning, the westernmost one moreso. It looks to my uneducated eye that they might be dragged along the line of the front that is draped across the eastern Atlantic and pushed out to sea (hopefully). When you get a chance after dealing with Barry and catching a breath, I’d appreciate if you’d let me know what is right or wrong about my thoughts. Thanks.

    • Both are a part of an mid to upper level low. The one near 23N 80W is beginning to show a surface reflection, however wind shear is going to be non conducive for development if it recurves. If it makes it to the Gulf, it could have a slim chance at INVEST status as shear waxes and wanes between semi-conducive to unfavorable in about 48-72 hours.

  2. dellamom says:

    And Barry it is, I see. Right again, Storm! In 1965 we didn’t get a “B” storm until Betsy in early September. I believe she was the first US hurricane to cost $1 Billion in damage. Then we had Katrina, and she was the first for many things. I think New Orleans wants to quit being the first to reach hurricane milestones, thank you very much.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks again Storm. Any luck on finding where TD1 was? since Andrea went from an Invest right to a Tropical Storm,(skipping the Depression phase)?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s