Good day everyone!
Tropical Depression Two is onshore officially over the northern area of Guatemala. The depression is currently moving to the WNW at around 8 mph. As of the 5:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on the depression:
5:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 18
Location: 17.0°N 89.4°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
As far as future track, analysis of satellite loop imagery from various channels indicate the actual center of circulation may be located further north than what we see for the 5:00 a.m. position. The Shortwave (IR2) satellite loop, albeit used mainly as nighttime visible, does an excellent job for determining where the LLC of a storm is located. Based on the following satellite loop images, I believe the center to be relocated north, closer to the Yucatan Peninsula. The map I’ve drawn indicates in red, the approx. location of the official position. The orange indicates where the LLC may be located based on satellite loop observations.
T.D. 2 SATELLITE FLOATER LOOPS
Based on these observations, current and forecast steering layers maps, I tend to agree with the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance, as it is pretty clustered, but believe that forecast track may have to be shifted further to the north, and Tropical Depression Two, could emerge a little further north into the BOC sometime tomorrow late morning /early afternoon.
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear values of only 10-15 knots at the moment, and is most likely why the cloud pattern appears to have held together nicely.
The current wind shear forecast from the GFS still indicates the upper level winds will improve over the next 24-30 hours, with a small, but brief upper level anticyclone developing over T.D. 2 once it emerges into the BOC. Based on this, and the premise of a possible shift northward in track location, the depression may have a brief window of opportunity to attain Tropical Storm status prior to second landfall in Mexico.
I will continue to monitor Tropical Depression Two for any significant changes throughout the day.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)