TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Tropical Depression Two is onshore officially over the northern area of Guatemala.  The depression is currently moving to the WNW at around 8 mph.  As of the 5:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on the depression:

5:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 18
Location: 17.0°N 89.4°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

HURREVAC TRACKING CHART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

As far as future track, analysis of satellite loop imagery from various channels indicate the actual center of circulation may be located further north than what we see for the 5:00 a.m. position.  The Shortwave (IR2) satellite loop, albeit used mainly as nighttime visible, does an excellent job for determining where the LLC of a storm is located.  Based on the following satellite loop images, I believe the center to be relocated north, closer to the Yucatan Peninsula.  The map I’ve drawn indicates in red, the approx. location of the official position.  The orange indicates where the LLC may be located based on satellite loop observations.

T.D. 2 SATELLITE FLOATER LOOPS

RGB

SHORTWAVE (IR2)

GOMEX LOOP IMAGERY

TD2 CENTER
Based on these observations, current and forecast steering layers maps, I tend to agree with the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance, as it is pretty clustered, but believe that forecast track may have to be shifted further to the north, and Tropical Depression Two, could emerge a little further north into the BOC sometime tomorrow late morning /early afternoon.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyinvest1best.TD2

Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear values of only 10-15 knots at the moment, and is most likely why the cloud pattern appears to have held together nicely.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

The current wind shear forecast from the GFS still indicates the upper level winds will improve over the next 24-30 hours, with a small, but brief upper level anticyclone developing over T.D. 2 once it emerges into the BOC.  Based on this, and the premise of a possible shift northward in track location, the depression may have a brief window of opportunity to attain Tropical Storm status prior to second landfall in Mexico.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Regardless of development, heavy rain, flooding, possible mudslides in mountainous areas, and gusty winds will affect areas in and around where this comes ashore.

I will continue to monitor Tropical Depression Two for any significant changes throughout the day.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. TD 2 can stay TD 2…just stay out of the EPAC!!

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm. And thank you for answering my question in the previous Blog. I guess Andrea was classified a depression, if only for a short time, because the are calling this current one, Tropical Depression #2. –at least that’s what I guess.

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